Key Stats for Fastenal Stock
- Current Price: $47 (July 16, 2026)
- Q2 2026 Daily Sales Growth: +15% YoY, accelerating from +12.4% in Q1
- Q2 2026 Revenue: $2.39B, +15% YoY, beat Street by 2%
- Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS: $0.33, +13.8% YoY, beat Street by 0.5%
- Q2 2026 Free Cash Flow: $201.6M, beat Street estimate by 111.1%
- Quarterly Dividend (raised): $0.26 per share, ~$1.00 annualized
- TIKR Model Price Target 12/31/30: $90
- Implied Upside: 93%
Fastenal Stock Closes Out Dan Florness’ 30-Year Run With a Decade-Best ROIC Quarter
Fastenal Company (FAST) closed a three-decade chapter on July 14, as Dan Florness delivered his final earnings call as CEO after 30 years with the company, handing the momentum toward what President and Chief Sales Officer Jeff Watts called the start of a new era.
The send-off arrived alongside one of Fastenal’s stronger operating quarters in years: daily sales grew 14.7% year-over-year, up from 12.4% in the first quarter, while return on invested capital climbed 180 basis points on a trailing twelve-month basis into the low 30s, a level both Florness and CFO Max Tunnicliff described as a multi-decade high.
The growth was broad rather than concentrated, with heavy manufacturing, representing 44% of sales, growing 18%, and construction growing approximately 17% for a second straight quarter, while contract counts rose more than 7% and customer sites spending $50,000 or more per month grew 16.5%, generating revenue growth above 26% from that cohort alone.
Margin performance told a more complicated story. Gross margin contracted roughly 75 basis points year-over-year, with tariff-driven price and cost pressure accounting for about 40 basis points of that headwind, yet operating margin still expanded 5 basis points as SG&A fell to 23.5% of sales from 24.4% a year earlier. Florness was candid about the tension, telling analysts he “would have felt a hell of a lot better about the quarter” had incremental margins reached 24% rather than the 21.5% Fastenal actually posted, attributing the gap to the lingering net price and cost headwind management says it is still chipping away at through the second half.
Florness closed his tenure by pushing through a dividend increase to $0.26 per share, lifting the annualized rate to $1 and preserving the company’s roughly 2% yield, while total capital returned to shareholders reached $305 million, about 80% of net income.
Full-year capital expenditure guidance remains approximately $320 million as Fastenal continues expanding hub capacity, automation, and its FMI (Fastenal Managed Inventory) device fleet, which grew signings 8.3% in the quarter and now represents 44.6% of total sales. Digital footprint sales, at 61.6% of the total, are tracking modestly below the company’s original 66% target, a gap management attributed to non-digital sales growing nearly as fast as digital as Fastenal wins larger, more complex customer accounts.
TIKR’s $90 Target Implies 93% Upside for Fastenal Stock by 2034
TIKR’s base case values Fastenal stock at approximately $90 by December 2034, implying around 93% total return from the current price of $47, or roughly 8% annualized over roughly 8.5 years.
In the low case, slower share gains and a stalled price and cost recovery still produce a stock price near $71 for roughly 53% total return and about 5% annualized. In the high case, continued double-digit daily sales growth alongside expanding FMI and digital penetration lifts the stock toward $111 for a 137% total return, or roughly 11% annualized.
Each scenario assumes the $1 annualized dividend and current capital spending pace already confirmed by management holds through the decade.
Should You Invest in Fastenal Company?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
