Key Stats for Carrier Global Stock
- Current Price: $59
- Target Price: $94
- Street Target: $71.85
- Potential Total Return: +58.2%
- Annualized IRR: 10.1%
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What Happened?
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) experienced a significant 37.62% maximum drawdown in late 2025 as the broader residential and light commercial markets digested inventory destocking and macroeconomic softness.
However, the narrative surrounding the climate solutions giant has shifted dramatically in early 2026.
Speaking at the JPMorgan Industrials Conference on March 18, CEO David Gitlin confirmed that the company has fundamentally reshaped its portfolio to capture the explosive demand for data center thermal management.
The scale of Carrier’s pivot is staggering. In the fourth quarter, data center orders skyrocketed by roughly 400%.
Carrier entered 2026 with a $1 billion data center backlog and a firm commitment to deliver $1.5 billion in data center revenue for the year.
To meet this massive influx of demand, Carrier has expanded capacity at its Charlotte facility by 50% and converted a Monterrey, Mexico facility entirely to chiller production.
“The product portfolio is night and day,” Gitlin stated, addressing how far the company has come since its spin-off.
“Have we spent maybe a little bit more R&D than a couple of our peers? Sure, but we had to really build out that portfolio… when [hyperscalers] witness our first-of-kind unit test… they will tell you to a person that technically, we are performing at superior levels.”
This superiority is driven by a massive expansion into both water-cooled and air-cooled systems.
Carrier is actively winning bids with its massive 10-to-18-megawatt water-cooled chillers utilizing frictionless “maglev” bearings, while simultaneously scaling up 2-to-5-megawatt air-cooled variations.
Looking ahead, Carrier is aggressively pursuing liquid cooling technologies for high-density AI server racks.
While Coolant Distribution Units (CDUs), which are effectively mini-chillers, will contribute less than $100 million to this year’s revenue, the long-term roadmap is securely anchored in verifiable reality.
In early 2025, Carrier Ventures officially invested in and partnered with ZutaCore to advance two-phase, waterless direct-to-chip liquid cooling, ensuring Carrier remains deeply embedded in the next generation of AI data center architectures.
Beyond data centers, Carrier is defending its residential margins by tightly managing channel supply.
Learning from past gluts, management purposefully kept field inventory down 30% year-over-year entering the crucial spring selling season.
Furthermore, the company is successfully integrating its transformational acquisition of Viessmann Climate Solutions to launch lower-cost, highly differentiated heat pumps across Europe, protecting its total addressable market against shifting subsidy environments.
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Is Carrier Global Undervalued Today?
The market’s recent 37% correction appears to have mispriced Carrier relative to the massive operational tailwinds and technical market share it is actively capturing.
When evaluating standalone valuation data from TIKR, CARR currently trades at an NTM EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.96x and an NTM P/E of 21.27x.
For industrial climate providers, Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA is the preferred metric to evaluate core cash generation independent of the differing debt profiles resulting from recent acquisitions.
When stacked against its primary peers, Carrier Global is trading at a massive, unjustified discount.
Trane Technologies (TT) commands a hefty 20.77x EV/EBITDA multiple, while Johnson Controls (JCI) trades at 19.88x and Lennox International (LII) sits at 14.83x.
This relative discount exists despite Carrier’s Automated Logic Controls (ALC) business boasting an estimated 80% market share with key hyperscalers, alongside a commercial HVAC aftermarket segment that has posted double-digit growth for five consecutive years.
With the Current Price of $59.25 trading significantly below the Street Target of $71.85, the market has left a glaring gap for value realization as data center shipments heavily accelerate into the back half of the year.
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The TIKR Model Analysis
The TIKR Advanced Model calculates the long-term impact of Carrier successfully scaling its high-margin thermal management footprint.
- Current Price: $59
- Target Price: $94
- Potential Total Return: +58.2%
- Annualized IRR: 10.1%
Build a 4-year Valuation Model for CARR for yourself (It’s free) >>>
The Mid Case model projects an aggressive $93.74 target price, driven by a highly reliable 3.9% Revenue CAGR through the forecast period. This top-line growth assumes that the relentless 400% order momentum in data centers, alongside innovative new partnerships with Google and Tesla for home energy storage, will easily offset near-term softness in standard residential shipments.
The valuation is further supported by the structural expansion of its Net Income Margins, which are modeled to reach a highly profitable 11.7%. Achieving this requires management to successfully execute its strategy of increasing service attachment rates and leveraging digital tools (like ALC) to deepen customer relationships. If Carrier captures these margin benefits while maintaining its disciplined capacity expansions in North America, the 10.1% annualized return presents a highly attractive opportunity for investors willing to look past the residential cycle.
Conclusion: Carrier Global has successfully shed its legacy HVAC skin to emerge as a pure-play leader in high-growth, high-margin thermal management. Despite a 37% drawdown driven by short-cycle residential headwinds, the company’s underlying fundamentals are rapidly accelerating, highlighted by a massive 400% surge in data center orders and strategic investments in next-generation liquid cooling technology like ZutaCore. Trading at an unjustified 12.96x EV/EBITDA discount relative to competitors like Trane and Johnson Controls, the path to the $93.74 TIKR model target is exceptionally clear for investors willing to look past near-term residential inventory cycles and bet on the global data center buildout
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Should You Invest in Carrier Global?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Carrier Global, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
