Key Takeaways for Ares Management Stock as of July 2026
- TIKR’s mid-case model prices Ares Management stock at $275.10 by December 2030, a 119% total return from today’s $125, or 19% annualized over 4.5 years.
- Wall Street covers the stock with 17 analysts: 7 buys, 4 outperforms, 6 holds, and zero sells, with a mean target of $143.
- A nine-week third-party AI disruption study found 86% of Ares’ software credit book carries low risk, directly rebutting the fear that drove the stock down.
- Fee-related earnings climbed 26% year over year to $464 million in the first quarter, and management fees topped $1 billion for the first time in company history.
Ares Management stock has been priced for a credit crisis that its own numbers don’t support. Explore Ares Management’s full financial history and analyst estimates on TIKR for free →
Ares Management Stock Beats Back the AI Fear That Sank It
Ares Management Corporation (ARES) hired one of the top three global management consulting firms to spend nine weeks stress-testing its software lending book against AI disruption risk, and the results landed on the company’s Q1 2026 earnings call: 86% of the portfolio carries low risk, 13% sits at medium risk, and just 1% qualifies as high risk. That finding cuts directly against the narrative that had weighed on Ares Management stock for months, the fear that AI would gut the cash flows backing its private credit loans.
CEO Michael Arougheti addressed the study directly on the call, explaining its scope: “They conducted a 9-week independent and detailed review of the potential forward-looking AI risk in our software-oriented portfolio companies… The study created each company on a spectrum base of risk characteristics and concluded that our software-oriented portfolio is very well positioned with 86% of the portfolio with low risk of potential AI disruption.” He added that software makes up just 6% of Ares’ overall assets under management and under 8% of its private credit book, a sliver of exposure relative to the market’s anxiety.
The timing matters. Loans in traded markets tied to content-generation and productivity software have fallen 24% year to date, while loans backing core operational and regulated-industry software, where Ares concentrates its book, have slipped only 2%. Ares isn’t exposed to the part of the software market actually getting repriced for AI risk.
That gap between perception and portfolio composition is the development repricing this stock.
The AI risk study is only one input Ares laid out this quarter. See the full Q1 2026 earnings breakdown on TIKR for free →
Ares Management Stock Trades 35% Below Its Peak Despite a Bullish Street
Ares Management stock fell as much as 46% from its high, bottoming on March 12, 2026. It has since clawed back roughly 11 percentage points and now sits 35% below that same peak. The gap between the AI risk study’s findings and where the stock still trades suggests the market hasn’t fully absorbed what that study found.
Wall Street hasn’t abandoned the name. Of the 17 analysts covering Ares Management stock, 7 rate it a buy, 4 rate it outperform, 6 rate it a hold, and none rate it a sell. The mean price target sits at $143, 14% above the current $125 share price.
That target has come down from a peak near $189 in December 2025, but the ratings mix, zero sells across 17 analysts, shows the Street’s conviction hasn’t cracked even as the price did.
TIKR Values Ares Management Stock at $275, Pricing In Continued FRE Growth
TIKR’s mid-case model values Ares Management at $275 by December 2030, implying a 119% total return from the current price of $125, or 19% annualized over the next 4.5 years.
That annualized path outpaces what most diversified financial stocks offer an investor willing to sit through a private credit cycle that’s still working itself out. Ares isn’t priced like a company generating record fundraising and double-digit fee growth right now, it’s priced like one still absorbing a disruption shock.
The model’s target is reachable because the disruption shock never showed up in the numbers behind it. Fee-related earnings grew 26% year over year to $464 million in the first quarter, management fees crossed $1 billion for the first time, and fee-paying AUM grew 19% to $400 billion, all while the software book that spooked the market remains 86% low risk by the company’s own third-party review. The re-rating case rests on the market catching up to that gap.
A 119% modeled return only means something once you’ve checked the assumptions behind it. Build a free Ares Management valuation model on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Ares Management Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Ares Management Corporation stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Ares Management Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze ARES stock on TIKR for Free →
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
