Key Stats for Super Micro Stock
- Price Change: +10.6%
- Current Price: ~$34
- Advanced Model Target: $56
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What Happened?
Shares of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) rallied 10.6% to close at $34 on Friday, silencing critics with a quarterly report that shattered expectations.
The server maker reported $12.7 billion in quarterly revenue, a stunning 123% increase year-over-year, proving that the appetite for AI infrastructure remains insatiable.
Even more impressive was the raised full-year guidance, with management now forecasting $40 billion in annual sales as hyperscalers race to deploy liquid-cooled racks.
The catalyst for this growth is the company’s dominance in Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC) technology, which is becoming a requirement for the power-hungry chips from Nvidia and AMD.
While the company has faced scrutiny over its accounting and governance, the fundamental reality is that it remains a key partner for building the massive AI clusters of the future.
During the earnings call, management confirmed that their manufacturing capacity expansion in Malaysia and Silicon Valley is on track to support this explosive growth.
Investors were also relieved to hear that the “fully diluted share count” issue mentioned in the press release was merely a typo, which CFO David Weigand clarified during the Q&A.
The stock is now trading at a fraction of its peak valuation, creating a “deep value” setup for investors willing to bet on the longevity of the AI cycle.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Super Micro stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Super Micro Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO Charles Liang emphasized the company’s innovation in thermal management.
He stated: “Our Direct Liquid Cooling solution is gaining significant traction… customers realize that to run the next generation of GPUs, air cooling is simply not efficient enough.”
This technological moat is critical; as chip TDP (Thermal Design Power) rises, Super Micro’s early bet on liquid cooling is paying off.
Regarding the share count confusion, CFO David Weigand was transparent.
He clarified: “I noticed a typo on there. So please forgive the correction… the non-GAAP share count increased from 677 million to 709 million.”
The leadership team is focused on execution, aiming to regain investor trust by delivering consistent, profitable growth.
Read the full Super Micro Transcript on TIKR to see the Liquid Cooling Outlook >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the market’s punishment of the stock has created a massive dislocation from its intrinsic value.
- Target Price: $56
- Current Price: ~$34
- Potential Upside: +64.3%
Valuation Model Deep Dive
The investment case for Super Micro is a high-risk, high-reward bet on the infrastructure of the AI age.
The model suggests that even with conservative margin assumptions, the sheer volume of server demand justifies a much higher price.
- The Fair Value Gap: At $34, the stock trades at a deep discount to the $56 target, implying 64% upside as the “governance discount” fades.
- The Growth Reality: The model forecasts a staggering 47.0% Revenue growth rate (1-year forward), reflecting the explosive demand for AI compute.
- The Profitability Check: While margins are thin (9.0% Net Income Margin), the high volume allows for significant absolute profit generation.
If Super Micro can keep its nose clean and execute on its backlog, the rebound to $56 could happen faster than the market expects.
Conclusion: The riskiest way to play the surest trend. With a 64.3% upside potential to $56, Super Micro Computer is for aggressive investors who believe the company’s technology is too important to fail.
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How Much Upside Does Super Micro Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
