Key Stats for Molina Healthcare Stock
- Price Change: -25.8%
- Current Price: ~$131
- Street Target Price: $187
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
What Happened?
Shares of Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) crashed 25.8% to close near $131 on Friday, marking the company’s worst trading day in years following a catastrophic earnings report.
The insurer reported a surprise quarterly loss of $2.75 per share, missing analyst expectations for a profit by a massive margin, driven by soaring medical costs and retroactive adjustments.
The real damage came from the 2026 guidance slash, with management cutting their full-year profit forecast by nearly 50% due to “unprecedented” trends in medical utilization.
Management blamed the shortfall on challenges with a new Medicaid contract in Florida and forced exits from their Medicare Advantage Part D business, creating a perfect storm of negativity.
This reset implies that while the growth story is broken, the stock may be oversold at these levels, trading at just 13.3x forward earnings.
Analysts at Bank of America were less forgiving, warning that the “margin trough” could last longer than expected, but contrarians are eyeing the company’s history of turnarounds.
The stock is now trading at crisis levels, leaving investors to decide if the Street Target is right about a recovery to $187 or if the market is right to price it for permanent impairment.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Molina Healthcare stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Molina Healthcare Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO Joe Zubretsky attempted to frame 2026 as the bottom of the cycle.
He stated: “We believe that the imbalance between rates and trend marks 2026 as a trough year for Medicaid industry margins… We cannot predict how rate versus trend is going to improve over the next three years.”
This admission of uncertainty rattled investors, as it suggests the company has lost visibility into its core cost drivers.
CFO Mark Keim tried to reassure the market about the long-term potential, noting that the “embedded earnings” power of the business remains above $11 per share once margins normalize.
However, he also admitted: “The guidance is burdened by $2.50 per diluted share… due to implementation of the new Florida CMS Medicaid contract and… underperformance in the traditional Medicare Advantage Part D product.”
Read the full Molina Transcript on TIKR to see the Guidance Reset >>>
According to the Street Targets, the market has priced in a worst-case scenario that ignores the company’s historical ability to recover.
- Target Price: $187
- Current Price: ~$131
- Potential Upside: +42.4%
Valuation Deep Dive (Analyst)
The investment case for Molina has shifted from a “Growth” story to a “Turnaround” play.
- The Valuation Reset: At $131, the stock trades at roughly 13x the adjusted forward earnings, which looks cheap compared to the historical average of 18-20x.
- The Margin Opportunity: If management is correct that 2026 is the trough, any improvement in Medicaid reimbursement rates would flow directly to the bottom line, justifying a move back toward $187.
- The Capitulation: The massive volume on the selloff suggests that frustrated holders have exited, potentially clearing the deck for value investors to step in.
If Molina can stabilize its medical costs and execute its exit from unprofitable businesses, the path to $187 is paved with earnings recovery.
Conclusion: A falling knife with 42% upside. With a 42.4% upside potential to $187, Molina Healthcare is a high-risk contrarian bet for investors willing to look past the “earnings disaster” headline.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR..]
How Much Upside Does Molina Healthcare Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
