Key Stats for SoFi Technologies:
- 52-week range: $14.92 – $32.73
- Current price: $17.32
- Street mean target: ~$21
- Annualized IRR (TIKR mid case): ~25% / year
- Q1 2026 adjusted net revenue: $1.087B (+41% YoY)
- Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA: $340M (+62% YoY)
- Q1 2026 net income: $167M
- Total members: 14.7M (+35% YoY)
- Total loan originations: $12.2B (+68% YoY)
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance: ~$4.655B (~30% growth)
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A 48% Drawdown While the Business Kept Growing
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is best described as a digital bank that thinks like a tech company. The platform lets members borrow, save, invest, and manage their finances entirely through an app, with no physical branches and no legacy infrastructure dragging on margins.
Beyond consumer products, SoFi also operates Galileo, a financial technology platform that powers payment and banking features for other fintechs and institutions across roughly 133 million accounts globally.
The stock had an exceptional 2025, surging past $30 by late December. Then sentiment shifted hard. Shares fell nearly 50% from peak to trough, hitting a max drawdown of 48.26% on March 30, 2026, before clawing back to where they sit today, still down about 41% from the high.
The selloff wasn’t driven by deteriorating fundamentals. It was a valuation reset after a big run, compounded by broader risk-off pressure on high-growth fintech names and investor nervousness around potential dilution.
CEO Anthony Noto addressed it directly on the Q1 call: “We had an excellent Q1 delivering another quarter of durable growth and strong returns, fueled by our relentless focus on innovation and brand building.” The business results and the market mood were simply telling two different stories at the same time.
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Revenue Has Nearly Tripled in Three Years, and the Growth Isn’t Slowing
The fundamental case for SoFi rests on one observation: this company is compounding at a rate that most financial institutions can’t touch. Revenue grew from $1.01 billion in 2021 to $3.59 billion in 2025, and the trajectory hasn’t flattened.
Q1 2026 adjusted net revenue hit $1.087 billion, up 41% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA jumped 62% to $340 million, with margins expanding to 31%.
Consensus estimates project that the trajectory will continue, with revenue reaching roughly $4.7 billion in 2026, $5.7 billion in 2027, and nearly $8.9 billion by 2030.
The growth is coming from multiple directions. Member count reached 14.7 million in Q1, up 35% year over year, with a record 1.055 million new members added in the quarter alone.
Total loan originations hit $12.2 billion, up 68%, with personal loans up 51%, student loans up 119%, and home loans up 137%. Deposits grew to $40.2 billion, giving SoFi a low-cost funding base that traditional banks spent decades building.
Noto noted that average deposit rates are now 155 basis points cheaper than warehouse borrowing, translating to over $620 million in annualized interest expense savings. For a lending business, that kind of funding advantage is a genuine structural edge.
The one area worth watching closely is Galileo. Revenue there fell 27% year over year to $75 million after a large client transitioned off the platform in late 2025. Management is repositioning the business under a new unified identity, SoFi Technology Solutions, but rebuilding that revenue base will take time.
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What the Valuation Model Says About the Disconnect
At $17.32, SOFI trades at a meaningful discount relative to most long-term models. TIKR’s valuation model points to a mid-case target of around $47, implying roughly 170% total return from current levels over the next four and a half years, or about 25% annualized.
Worth understanding is where that return comes from. The model assumes around 18% revenue growth and net income margins expanding toward 21%, but the P/E multiple actually compresses around 6% annually across the forecast.
This isn’t a bet on the market re-rating SoFi to a premium valuation. The return, if it materializes, would be driven almost entirely by earnings growth.
The scenario range runs from a low-case IRR of around 14% to a high-case of around 23%, reflecting genuine uncertainty around credit quality, interest rates, and Galileo’s recovery pace.
Wall Street sits at a Hold consensus across roughly 27 ratings, with a mean target near $19. Goldman Sachs recently raised its target to $21, while others remain more cautious, a split that reflects a stock where both the bull and bear cases are coherent.
Should You Invest in SoFi Technologies?
SoFi is a genuinely interesting business at a genuinely complicated moment. The fundamentals, including revenue growth, member additions, loan origination volume, and ten consecutive profitable quarters, are about as clean as they get for a company this size growing this fast.
The stock price tells a different story, still nearly 41% below where it started the year. Whether that gap closes depends on execution, credit performance holding through any macro softness, and Galileo finding its footing.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
