Key Stats
- Current Price: ~$201 (May 11, 2026)
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $1.63B, up 19% year-over-year
- Q1 2026 Real Estate FFO: $1.2B, or $3.17 per share, up 7.5% year-over-year
- Q1 2026 Reported FFO/Share: $2.91
- Q1 2026 Domestic Property NOI Growth: +6.7% year-over-year
- Malls & Premium Outlets Occupancy: 96.0%, up 10 basis points year-over-year
- Retailer Sales per Square Foot: $819, up 11.8% year-over-year
- 2026 Real Estate FFO Guidance (Updated): $13.10–$13.25 per share (vs. $12.73 in 2025)
- TIKR Model Price Target: $240 (mid case)
- Implied Upside: ~19% from current price
Simon Property Group Q1 2026 Earnings: FFO Rises 7.5% as Occupancy and Retailer Sales Accelerate
Real estate FFO reached $1.2B, or $3.17 per share, in Q1 2026 — up 7.5% from $2.95 per share in the prior-year period.
Simon Property Group stock (SPG) opened the year with results that exceeded management’s own plan, driven by occupancy gains, increased shopper traffic, and higher retailer sales across every major platform.
The portfolio-level retail sales number was $819 per square foot for the quarter, up 11.8% year-over-year, with comparable sales growth of 6.5%.
Total sales volume increased 8.8% in the quarter and 5.6% over the trailing 12 months, a sign that remerchandising efforts are producing measurable results across categories including luxury, jewelry, athleisure, and juniors.
Simon signed more than 1,100 leases totaling over 4.7 million square feet in Q1, with approximately 25% of that volume coming from new deals.
New leases signed are running 20% to 25% above new lease rates from a year ago, according to CEO Eli Simon on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Domestic property NOI grew 6.7% year-over-year, with approximately 120 basis points of that growth attributable to Simon’s acquisition of the remaining Taubman interests completed in November 2025.
Malls and Premium Outlets occupancy ended Q1 at 96.0%, up 10 basis points year-over-year, while The Mills reached 99.2% occupancy, up 80 basis points.
Average base minimum rent for Malls and Premium Outlets increased 5.2% year-over-year, and The Mills increased 9.1%.
Simon raised its full-year 2026 real estate FFO guidance to a range of $13.10 to $13.25 per share, up from $12.73 per share in 2025 — a 5% increase at the midpoint.
On capital returns, Simon declared a Q2 dividend of $2.25 per share, up $0.15 or 7.1% year-over-year, payable June 30.
During the quarter, Simon repurchased approximately 965,000 shares for $175M at an average price of $181.59 per share, according to CFO Brian McDade on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
The balance sheet closed Q1 with approximately $8.7B of liquidity and a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.0x.
Development projects are currently underway at 29 centers with Simon’s share of net cost at $1.06B at a blended yield of 9%.
Simon also has an additional $1B of projects it expects to start construction on this year, and approximately $3B more in the longer-term pipeline.
Food and beverage was the one soft spot in the quarter, with comp sales running approximately flat, a trend Eli Simon attributed to broader softness in the restaurant sector.
International tourist-dependent locations, particularly Woodbury Common, also saw below-average performance — Woodbury’s comp came in at approximately 2.5% versus the portfolio-wide 6.5% — reflecting reduced European and Canadian visitor traffic.
Financials
The Q1 2026 income statement shows operating margins compressing quarter-over-quarter even as revenue growth accelerated, driven by rising operating expenses across property costs and depreciation.
Total revenues grew steadily from $1.46B in Q2 2024 to $1.58B in Q4 2024, then pulled back to $1.47B in Q1 2025 before climbing again — reaching $1.79B in Q4 2025 and $1.76B (rounded) in Q1 2026, a 19% year-over-year increase.
Rental revenues followed a similar arc, moving from $1.32B in Q2 2024 to $1.63B in Q1 2026, reflecting sustained lease income growth across the portfolio.
Operating income rose from $730M in Q1 2025 to $760M in Q1 2026, a 4.7% year-over-year gain per the income statement — but operating margins contracted sharply, falling from 49% in Q1 2025 to 43% in Q1 2026.
That margin decline reflects a rise in total operating expenses from $750M in Q1 2025 to $990M in Q1 2026, with property expenses climbing from $270M to $350M and depreciation and amortization moving from $330M to $460M over the same period.
The sequential picture reinforces the trend: operating margins ran between 50% and 53% from Q2 2024 through Q4 2024, slipped to the 49%–51% range through the first three quarters of 2025, then compressed to 43% in Q1 2026.
McDade noted on the Q1 2026 earnings call that higher interest expense and lower interest income combined were a $0.05 per share drag year-over-year in Q1 — and that the full-year headwind from interest rate dynamics is expected to be approximately $0.25 per share at the midpoint of current conditions.
The real estate FFO figure — $3.17 per share — is the cleaner read on Simon Property Group stock’s underlying cash generation, stripping out accelerated stock compensation expense and other platform investment charges that reduced reported FFO to $2.91 per share.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case model prices Simon Property Group stock at $240, implying approximately 19% upside from the current price of ~$201.
The model assumes revenue growth of 4.7% CAGR through 2035 and a net income margin of approximately 36% in the mid case — assumptions that look reasonable relative to the 8.3% revenue CAGR Simon posted over the trailing one year and the 37% net income margin in that same period.
The high case carries a price target of $365, implying approximately 82% total return, built on a 5.2% revenue CAGR and a net income margin of approximately 37%.
The low case target of $259 — itself above the current price — uses a 4.3% revenue CAGR and a net income margin near 35%, suggesting the model sees limited true downside at this price.
The annualized IRR in the mid case is 5.2%, which is modest but consistent with a high-quality REIT at near-full occupancy with a 7%-plus growing dividend.
Q1’s 7.5% FFO growth and guidance raise strengthen the mid-case assumptions rather than stress them, and the guidance increase to $13.10–$13.25 per share puts full-year FFO growth squarely on track.
The investment case for Simon Property Group stock is incrementally stronger after this quarter — the operational fundamentals exceeded plan, the guidance raise was meaningful, and the balance sheet remains in a position to fund the development pipeline without capital constraint.
Simon Property Group stock’s Q1 results were operationally clean — but the real debate is whether 19% upside is enough compensation for a REIT where margin compression is real, interest expense is a known headwind, and the growth engine depends on executing a multi-billion-dollar development pipeline across years, not quarters.
Simon’s Q1 results were operationally strong, but sustaining that momentum requires domestic NOI growth to hold above 5% for the full year, new lease rents to keep running 20% to 25% above prior-year levels, and the $1B development pipeline to deliver at or above its 9% blended yield.
Interest expense remains a known drag, with the full-year headwind expected near $0.25 per share.
On the downside, operating margins compressed from 49% in Q1 2025 to 43% in Q1 2026 as depreciation and property expenses scaled up, and that pressure could deepen as the pipeline grows.
Tourism-dependent outlets like Woodbury are lagging the portfolio average by over 400 basis points, and the mid-case model’s 5.2% IRR positions SPG as a long-duration hold rather than a near-term re-rating story.
Should You Invest in Simon Property Group (SPG)?
At TIKR, we believe every investor should do their own due diligence. The information in this article is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should assess your own financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment goals.
That said, if you want to analyze Simon Property Group stock or any other company more deeply, TIKR gives you institutional-quality financial data, including revenue trends, margin history, valuation models, and earnings estimates, all in one place.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze SPG stock on TIKR for Free →
