Key Stats for Seagate Stock
- Price Change: +6.1%
- Current Price: ~$430
- Advanced Model Target: $532
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
What Happened?
Shares of Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) surged 6.1% to close at $430 on Friday, driven by a growing realization that AI models require exponentially more storage capacity than previously thought.
The catalyst is the same “Data Hoarding” trend that lifted Western Digital earlier in the week: hyperscalers like Amazon and Google are racing to build massive data lakes to train their next-generation models.
While investors have focused heavily on GPU spending, the sheer volume of data being processed means that hard drive capacity must grow in lockstep to store the output.
Seagate is the primary beneficiary of this trend, as its new HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) technology allows data centers to store more information on fewer disks, reducing total cost of ownership.
Analysts at Wells Fargo noted the shift, upgrading the sector as they believe the industry has moved past the inventory correction and into a multi-year upcycle.
The company’s focus on mass capacity drives (over 30TB) positions it perfectly for the AI era, where density and power efficiency are paramount.
Despite the recent run-up, the stock still trades at a discount to its historical valuation relative to earnings potential, suggesting the market hasn’t fully priced in the “storage super-cycle.”
With the stock breaking out to new highs, the technical momentum confirms that institutional capital is flowing into the storage leaders.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Seagate stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Seagate Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO Dave Mosley sounded incredibly optimistic about the demand environment.
He stated: “The clouds are parting… We can see areal density opportunities in front of us, and we will take that money… and reinvest in ourselves.”
This comment reflects a confident management team that sees a clear path to growth after a difficult cyclical downturn.
Regarding their technological edge, he added: “Successfully qualifying customers on our HAMR-based Mozaic products to address the sustained and growing demand for data storage.”
The leadership team believes that as AI applications move from training to inference, the need for cost-effective, high-capacity storage will explode.
Read the full Seagate Transcript on TIKR to see the HAMR Roadmap >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the recent rally is just the beginning of a larger repricing.
- Target Price: $531.79
- Current Price: ~$430
- Potential Upside: +23.6%
Valuation Model Deep Dive
The investment case for Seagate is based on the idea that data is the “oil” of the AI economy, and Seagate builds the barrels.
The model suggests that the market is underestimating the pricing power Seagate will have as capacity becomes constrained.
- The Fair Value Gap: At $430, the stock trades below the $532 target, implying 24% upside as earnings estimates are revised higher.
- The Growth Reality: The model forecasts a robust 38.9% Revenue growth rate (1-year forward), signaling a massive cyclical rebound from the lows of 2024.
- The Profitability Check: With margins recovering from the bottom, the operating leverage in the business model means that incremental revenue will flow disproportionately to the bottom line.
If Seagate can execute on its HAMR roadmap and capture the AI storage demand, the path to $532 is firmly supported by fundamentals.
Conclusion: The silent partner of the AI boom. With a 23.6% upside potential to $532, Seagate Technology offers a critical but overlooked way to invest in the infrastructure that makes AI possible.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
How Much Upside Does Seagate Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
