Key Stats for Qualys Stock
- Price Change: -13.3%
- Current Price: ~$111
- Advanced Model Target: $149
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What Happened?
Shares of Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) tumbled 13.3% to close near $111 on Friday, suffering a harsh “sell the news” reaction despite reporting solid quarterly results.
Triggering the selloff was a classic case of high expectations meeting reality, as investors looked past the EPS beat of $1.87 (vs $1.78 expected) and focused on guidance concerns.
While revenue grew 10% year-over-year to reach new highs, the market appeared disappointed by the company’s forecast for “mid-40s” EBITDA margins in 2026, a slight step back from the stellar 47% achieved in 2025.
During the earnings call, CFO Joo Mi Kim explained that the margin contraction is deliberate, reflecting renewed investment in sales and marketing to reignite top-line growth.
The selloff drags Qualys down to a valuation of just 16.2x EV/EBITDA, a discount compared to its high-growth cybersecurity peers.
Furthermore, analysts at Wedbush reaffirmed their “Outperform” rating with a $155 target, arguing that the underlying demand for vulnerability management remains robust in an increasingly dangerous cyber landscape.
The divergence between the stock price and the company’s steady execution has created a potential entry point for value-oriented tech investors.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Qualys stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Qualys Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO Sumedh Thakar defended the company’s strategy of balancing growth with profitability.
He stated: “We’re really pleased to start off the year strong with all key positions filled… keeping that in mind, last year, we had guided to low-40s EBITDA margin… We closed out the year 2025 with 47% EBITDA margin.”
Thakar emphasized that the new leadership team is now fully in place and ready to execute on a go-to-market strategy that targets larger enterprise deals.
Management believes the slight margin compression is a necessary trade-off to capture market share in the booming cloud security space.
Read the full Qualys Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 Guidance >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the market’s reaction has pushed the stock deep into “Buy” territory.
- Target Price: $149
- Current Price: ~$111
- Potential Upside: +34.1%
Valuation Deep Dive
The investment case for Qualys is a bet on the durability of its “highly profitable growth” model.
With the stock trading at ~$111, the valuation has compressed to levels rarely seen for a company with such strong cash generation.
- The Profit Machine: Qualys boasts industry-leading Net Income Margins of 32.2% (LTM), proving it is one of the most efficient operators in the software sector.
- The Growth Engine: The model forecasts a steady 13.0% Revenue CAGR over the next 5 years, suggesting the company is far from ex-growth.
- The Value Gap: The disconnect between the $149 Fair Value and the current price implies the market is pricing in a permanent slowdown that contradicts the company’s pipeline.
If Qualys can prove that its investments are yielding fruit in the coming quarters, the re-rating back to $149 could be driven by both earnings growth and multiple expansion.
Conclusion: A rare discount on quality. With a 34.1% upside potential to $149, Qualys offers a compelling opportunity for investors to pick up a blue-chip cybersecurity stock at a “sell the news” discount.
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How Much Upside Does Qualys Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
