Key Takeaways:
- Portfolio Expansion: Celsius Holdings integrated Alani Nu and Rockstar in 2025, lifting U.S. energy share above 20 and positioning the portfolio for broader Pepsi distribution scale.
- Execution Reset: Celsius shifted promotional intensity and revenue management in 2025, stabilizing volumes after a Q3 slowdown while maintaining gross margins above 50.
- Valuation Target: Based on 34 revenue growth and 18 operating margins, Celsius stock could reach $67 by 2027 using a 35 P E multiple on normalized earnings.
- Return Profile: The $67 target implies 32 total upside from the $51 price, translating into a 16 annualized return over the next 2 years.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) sells functional energy drinks across the U.S. and international markets, generating over $2 billion in trailing revenue from health-positioned brands targeting sugar free and fitness-oriented consumers.
Celsius produced $1 billion in gross profit with gross margins above 50, while operating expenses of roughly $700 million supported operating income near $400 million and operating margins close to 20.
After revenue growth slowed to 3 in 2024, management pivoted toward execution discipline and portfolio scale, with 2025 revenue expected to rebound above 30 as distribution and brand cadence normalize.
In December 2025, Celsius reported 25 growth over the prior 12 weeks with market share above 20, while progressing Alani Nu integration past 80 of U.S. distribution and advancing Rockstar integration toward first half 2026 completion.
At the same time, CFO Jarrod Langhans stated, “We’re set up for a fantastic 2025,” framing integration milestones, margin recovery, and capital allocation as priorities following a $200 million debt reduction.
Valuation remains elevated at roughly 40 times earnings against a modeled 35 multiple and a $67 valuation anchor, placing investor focus on whether brand momentum and margin durability can justify premium expectations.
What the Model Says for CELH Stock
Celsius stock benefits from strong category positioning and improving scale, supporting elevated expectations despite capital intensity and competitive pressures.
However, the model assumes 34.3% revenue growth, 18.3% operating margins, and a 35.4x exit multiple, generating a $66.79 target price.
The modeled 32.1% total upside and 15.8% annualized return provide moderate compensation relative to growth equity risk.
The model signals a Buy, as a 15.8% annualized return exceeds typical equity hurdles based on disciplined valuation assumptions.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for CELH stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 34.3%
Celsius Holdings delivered 3% revenue growth in 2024 after years of triple-digit expansion, reflecting category saturation effects and distributor inventory normalization rather than structural demand erosion.
The 34.3% growth assumption relies on accelerating brand velocity, expanded Pepsi distribution, and portfolio scale following Alani Nu and Rockstar integration across U.S. and international channels.
This outcome requires sustained category outperformance, clean execution across multiple brand integrations, and stable promotional intensity without renewed channel stuffing or demand pull-forward.
This sits above the 1-year historical 3% growth, assuming sharp re-acceleration that breaks quickly if momentum softens.
2. Operating Margins: 18.3%
Celsius Holdings generated operating margins near 20% recently, supported by gross margins above 50% and a relatively asset-light manufacturing and distribution model.
The 18.3% margin assumption reflects normalization after promotional reinvestment, integration costs, and revenue management adjustments while preserving scale benefits from higher volumes.
Margins depend on disciplined spending, limited pricing pressure, and successful absorption of Alani and Rockstar costs without prolonged inefficiencies or margin dilution.
This falls below the 1-year historical 20% margin, assuming mild compression with limited downside protection if costs rise.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 35.4x
An exit P/E multiple capitalizes terminal net income to reflect business durability, growth visibility, and risk balance at the end of the forecast period.
The 35.4x multiple aligns with a business still growing above market rates but transitioning from hypergrowth toward steadier earnings expansion by 2027.
This multiple already embeds successful margin delivery, sustained revenue growth, and clean integration outcomes, leaving limited room for valuation expansion if sentiment improves.
This is below the 1-year historical 39.9x multiple, assuming valuation compression rather than multiple expansion drives returns.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Celsius Holdings performance depends on brand momentum, distribution execution, and cost discipline, creating diverging paths through 2029.
- Low Case: If category demand cools and integration friction persists, revenue grows around 19.1% with margins near 12.5% → 3.2% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With portfolio execution stabilizing and Pepsi distribution working as planned, revenue growth near 21.0% and margins improving toward 13.6% → 11.4% annualized return.
- High Case: If brand velocity reaccelerates and integrations scale cleanly, revenue reaches about 22.9% with margins approaching 14.2% → 18.8% annualized return.
How Much Upside Does Celsius Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
