Key Takeaways:
- 5G Expansion: Mobile data consumption is growing 35% annually, driving tower demand across global markets.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, AMT stock could reach $203 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 19% from the current price of $171.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 9% growth over the next 1.9 years.
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American Tower Corporation (AMT) delivered a strong third quarter in 2025 with double-digit AFFO per share growth and raised full-year guidance across all key metrics.
The company now expects attributable AFFO per share growth of approximately 7%, or 9% when excluding FX headwinds and financing costs.
CEO Steve Vondran highlighted robust leasing activity across both tower and data center businesses.
- Mobile data consumption in the U.S. grew 35% year-over-year for the third consecutive year, driven by 5G device adoption and fixed wireless access.
- At this pace, data usage doubles every 2 to 3 years, requiring significant network capacity expansion that directly benefits tower landlords.
- The company’s CoreSite data center business signed record retail leasing revenue in Q3, fueled by hybrid cloud deployments and AI-related workloads.
- With 75% of U.S. towers already upgraded with 5G equipment, considerable runway remains as carriers complete coverage rollouts and shift to densifying their networks.
Despite strong fundamentals and a best-in-class portfolio, American Tower trades at $171, offering upside for investors who recognize the company’s position in critical wireless infrastructure.
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What the Model Says for American Tower Stock
We analyzed American Tower through its transformation into the world’s best independent tower operator and a growing data center footprint.
The company benefits from multiple demand drivers.
In developed markets such as the U.S., carriers are deploying mid-band 5G spectrum and beginning network densification to handle surging data traffic.
International markets show even stronger growth potential, with 5G mid-band coverage at roughly 50% in Europe, 20% in Latin America, and just 10% in Africa.
American Tower’s CoreSite data centers provide additional upside.
These facilities offer rich network interconnection ecosystems, making them ideal for hybrid cloud and AI workloads that require low latency.
Management expects CoreSite to deliver mid-teens or higher stabilized yields as visibility improves, as pre-leasing pipelines build.
Using a forecast of 4.1% annual revenue growth and 47% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $204 within 1.9 years. This assumes a 25.2x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from American Tower’s historical P/E averages of 30.3x (one year) and 34.2x (three years).
The lower multiple acknowledges near-term headwinds from customer consolidation, including T-Mobile’s UScellular acquisition and AT&T’s EchoStar spectrum purchase, which create integration complexity and potential churn.
The real value lies in capturing long-term growth in mobile data across global markets while expanding the high-margin CoreSite business.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for AMT stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 4.1%
American Tower’s growth centers on structural demand for wireless infrastructure.
The company delivered 5% consolidated organic tenant billings growth in Q3, with international markets growing nearly 7%.
Management expects this momentum to continue as global data consumption compounds. U.S. application volumes increased 20% year-over-year, with collocations up 40%, signaling the early stages of network densification.
Recent spectrum acquisitions by AT&T strengthen the growth outlook. While software upgrades may enable initial deployments, history shows that additional spectrum ultimately drives network augmentation and higher tower revenues as carriers densify to handle increased capacity demands.
2. Operating margins: 47%
American Tower has expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 300 basis points since 2020 through operational efficiency and cost management.
This performance reflects steady organic growth complemented by disciplined expense control. Management sees continued margin expansion opportunities through supply chain optimization, automation, and technology improvements within its new Chief Operating Officer structure.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 25.2x
The market values American Tower at 26x earnings. We assume the P/E will compress slightly to 25.2x over our forecast period.
Near-term uncertainty from customer consolidation weighs on the multiple. UScellular represents less than 1% of revenue but has a portion up for renewal in 2026.
The EchoStar situation adds complexity, though the company filed a declaratory judgment to confirm the validity of its contract through 2036.
As 5G deployment continues and American Tower demonstrates resilient execution across its global portfolio, the company should command a premium multiple.
The entrepreneurial operating model with strong regional teams provides agility to capture growth opportunities while managing market dynamics.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Tower companies face technology transitions and capital spending cycles. Here’s how American Tower stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2028:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 4.7% and net income margins compress to 26.8%, investors still see a 21.0% total return (5.0% annually).
- Mid Case: With 5.3% growth and 27.5% margins, we expect a total return of 42.1% (9.4% annually).
- High Case: If mobile data acceleration drives 5.8% revenue growth while American Tower maintains 27.7% margins, returns could hit 61.6% total (13.1% annually).
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The range reflects execution on global 5G deployment, successful navigation of customer consolidation, and CoreSite’s ability to capture AI-driven data center demand.
In the worst case, carrier consolidation leads to higher-than-expected churn, or 5G densification moderates.
In the best case, mobile data growth exceeds expectations, international markets accelerate faster than anticipated, and CoreSite margins improve ahead of schedule as AI workloads drive pricing power.
How Much Upside Does American Tower Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
