Key Takeaways:
- AI Integration Push: Rolling out conversational search and automated customer support across 50+ languages next year.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, ABNB stock could reach $161 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 32% from the current price of $122.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 15.5% growth over the next 1.9 years.
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
Airbnb (ABNB) just posted record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 billion while expanding beyond its core business for the first time in company history. The platform grew revenue by 10% in Q3 2025 to $4.1 billion, while nights and experiences booked jumped 9% year over year.
CEO Brian Chesky is executing an aggressive transformation strategy centered on AI and product expansion.
The company introduced 65 major platform improvements in recent months, including Reserve Now, Pay Later financing, and enhanced map features. Meanwhile, new ventures into experiences, services, and hotels are diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional home rentals.
Gross booking value surged 14% to $22.9 billion, driven by strength in the U.S. market, where the Reserve Now, Pay Later offering saw 70% adoption among eligible bookings. The company generated $1.3 billion in free cash flow during the quarter and repurchased $857 million in stock.
Despite this momentum, Airbnb stock trades at $122, leaving room for upside for investors who recognize the company’s position in the evolving travel landscape.
See analysts’ full growth forecasts and estimates for ABNB stock (It’s free) >>>
What the Model Says for Airbnb Stock
We analyzed Airbnb’s transformation into a comprehensive travel platform, driven by expanding AI capabilities and new product lines.
The company is moving beyond vacation rentals. New offerings in experiences, services, and hotels create a broader ecosystem for travelers.
The experiences and services business received over 110,000 host applications, with average ratings of 4.93 out of 5 stars.
Nearly half of experience bookings came from users without accompanying home stays, demonstrating the platform’s ability to attract new customer segments.
The hotel pilot in New York, Los Angeles, and Madrid targets supply-constrained markets where regulations limit the number of home listings.
By partnering with boutique and independent properties, Airbnb fills gaps for single-night urban stays while maintaining its differentiated positioning.
Using a forecast of 9.9% annual revenue growth and 23.4% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $161 within 1.9 years. This assumes a 26.1x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Airbnb’s historical P/E averages of 29.4x (one year) and 31.3x (three years). The lower multiple acknowledges execution risks from simultaneous product launches and potential margin pressure from new business investments.
The real value lies in successfully integrating AI throughout the platform while scaling experiences, services, and hotels to meaningful revenue contributors.
Our Valuation Assumptions
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for ABNB stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 9.9%
Airbnb’s growth centers on core business expansion and new product lines.
The company achieved mid-single-digit growth in North America and EMEA, low-20s growth in Latin America, and mid-teens growth in Asia Pacific. International expansion markets grew at double the rate of core markets, with first-time bookers up over 20% in Japan and nearly 50% in India.
The Reserve Now, Pay Later payment option drove meaningful U.S. acceleration, with management confirming incremental bookings outweigh higher cancellation rates. Services, experiences, and hotels remain in early stages but are building momentum in supply and demand, city by city.
2. Operating margins: 23.4%
Airbnb is balancing investment with profitability expansion.
The company delivered a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q3, with full-year expectations raised to approximately 35%, up from the previous 34.5% floor. This performance reflects operational leverage despite heavy investment in new product launches.
Management indicated 2025 was a unique year requiring platform rebuilds for services, experiences, and hotels.
Future product launches should require less incremental investment as the infrastructure is now established. The company expects to maintain strong margins in 2026 while continuing to invest in growth.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 26.1x
The market values Airbnb at 26.1x earnings currently. We assume this multiple remains constant over our forecast period.
Near-term concerns include execution complexity across multiple new businesses and potential margin pressure from ongoing investments.
The company must prove it can scale experiences, services, and hotels while maintaining core business momentum.
As AI features roll out and new verticals demonstrate traction, Airbnb should sustain a premium valuation. The platform’s 90% direct traffic, verified identity system, and integrated messaging create defensible moats that AI enhancements will strengthen rather than disrupt.
Build your own Valuation Model to value any stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Travel platforms face competition and evolving consumer preferences. Here’s how Airbnb stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 8.8% and net income margins compress to 24.3%, investors still see a 55.1% total return (11.9% annually).
- Mid Case: With 9.8% growth and 26.2% margins, we expect a total return of 99.3% (19.3% annually).
- High Case: If AI and new products accelerate adoption while Airbnb maintains 27.9% margins at 10.8% growth, returns could hit 149.9% total (26.5% annually).
See what analysts think about ABNB stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
The range reflects execution on AI integration, successful scaling of experiences and hotels, and ability to expand internationally while maintaining pricing power against traditional accommodations.
In the low case, new product launches disappoint or competition intensifies in core markets.
In the high case, AI-powered search drives conversion improvements, experiences become a meaningful revenue driver faster than expected, and hotel partnerships expand successfully beyond initial pilots.
How Much Upside Does Airbnb Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
