Key Takeaways:
- Infrastructure Boom: 22% revenue growth in Q3 2025 driven by communications, clean energy, and power delivery demand.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, MTZ stock could reach $262 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 11.4% from the current price of $235.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 5.8% growth over the next 1.9 years.
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MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) delivered record quarterly revenue of nearly $4 billion in Q3 while growing sales 22% year-over-year. The company is executing an aggressive expansion across communications infrastructure, power delivery, and clean energy projects as America modernizes its energy grid.
CEO Jose Mas emphasized the company’s scale and diversification strength during the earnings call. MasTec’s non-pipeline segments grew revenues 22% with EBITDA up 31% and margins improving 60 basis points—nearly all organic growth.
The company ended Q3 with $16.8 billion in backlog, up from the prior year, positioning it for continued expansion across all segments.
The communications segment surged 33% as telecom companies invest heavily in broadband infrastructure and AI-enabled applications.
Meanwhile, power delivery grew 17% despite permitting delays on the Greenlink transmission project, and clean energy posted 20% growth with EBITDA jumping 36%.
Despite this momentum, MasTec stock trades at $235, near all-time highs, and still offers value to investors who recognize the company’s position in America’s infrastructure buildout.
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What the Model Says for MasTec Stock
We analyzed MasTec’s transformation into a diversified infrastructure provider, with increasing exposure to power grid modernization and data center buildouts.
The company benefits from multiple tailwinds.
- Utilities are investing billions to upgrade aging transmission and distribution systems while connecting new generation sources.
- Data centers require massive fiber deployment and electrical infrastructure.
- The pipeline business is returning to growth, with natural gas playing a critical role in baseload power generation.
MasTec now operates with strong customer diversification and recurring revenue streams. The power delivery segment, representing $4 billion in annual revenue, generates 80-90% of its revenue from maintenance contracts and utility relationships. This stability supports project work that drives growth.
Using a forecast of 11.5% annual revenue growth and 5.8% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $262 within 1.9 years. This assumes a 26.6x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents slight compression relative to MasTec’s one-year P/E average of 26.7x, but expansion relative to the 23.1x five-year average. The multiple reflects confidence in margin expansion as the company scales operations and integrates recent wins, balanced against execution risks on large transmission projects.
The real value lies in the potential to improve margins. Management demonstrated strong sequential progress in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding from 5.7% in Q1 to 9.4% in Q3.
Further margin gains come from operating leverage, project mix optimization, and reduced growth-related investments.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for MTZ stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 11.5%
MasTec’s growth centers on infrastructure investment across multiple end markets.
The communications segment achieved 33% organic growth in Q3, driven by wireless and wireline deployment for broadband and AI applications.
The Lumen contract begins ramping in 2026, providing visible growth. Management expects double-digit growth to continue as hyperscalers build out data center connectivity.
Power delivery faces near-term headwinds from Greenlink permitting delays but has secured strong customer commitments.
The company announced its second-largest transmission project to date, scheduled to begin in mid-2026. Management maintains confidence in double-digit segment growth as utilities invest heavily in grid capacity.
The pipeline segment returned to growth, with 20% Q3 gains and backlog doubling year over year. Management sees a path to exceed the historical high of $3.5 billion in pipeline revenue, though primarily beyond 2026.
2. Operating margins: 5.8%
MasTec is executing margin expansion while scaling operations.
The company delivered sequential margin improvement throughout 2025. Management targets continued annual margin progression with multiple levers: reduced growth investments as new offices mature, operating leverage from higher volumes, and improved project mix.
Communications EBITDA margins reached 11.3% in Q3, up 40 basis points year-over-year, with room for further gains.
Clean energy EBITDA margins hit 8.5%, increasing 100 basis points. Pipeline EBITDA margins strengthened to 15.4% in Q3, with Q4 expected to be higher, setting up a strong 2026 performance.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 26.6x
The market values MasTec at 30.9x earnings. We assume modest compression to 26.6x over our forecast period.
Near-term execution challenges on Greenlink and integration complexity from rapid communications expansion create some uncertainty. However, as the company demonstrates margin expansion and converts backlog into revenue, it should maintain a premium multiple.
The diversified platform with exposure to secular infrastructure trends supports valuation. Strong cash generation and leverage improvement to 1.95x provide financial flexibility for growth investments and acquisitions.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Infrastructure companies face project execution risks and capital spending cycles. Here’s how MasTec stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 7.8% and net income margins remain at 4.5%, investors still see a 14.1% total return (3.4% annually).
- Mid Case: With 8.7% growth and 4.9% margins, we expect a total return of 47.4% (10.4% annually).
- High Case: If infrastructure spending accelerates and MasTec achieves 5.2% margins while growing at 9.6%, returns could hit 83.5% total (16.8% annually).
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The range reflects execution on margin expansion, successful project delivery, and sustained infrastructure investment.
In the worst case, Greenlink delays extend or pipeline growth disappoints.
In the best case, all segments deliver margin improvements while data center opportunities accelerate faster than expected.
How Much Upside Does MasTec Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
