Key Stats for Palantir Stock
- Current Price: $143.06
- Potential Total Return (mid-case): +542.8% over 4.8 years
- Mid-Case Annualized IRR: 47.70% / year
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What Happened?
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is trading 31% below its 52-week high of $207.52 despite reporting the strongest quarter in its history.
That disconnect is what investors are actively working through.
Bulls argue the drawdown is a valuation reset on the most important AI infrastructure company of this cycle. Bears argue that 108x forward earnings leave no room for any execution miss.
The tension came into focus on February 2, 2026, when Palantir reported Q4 2025 results.
Total revenue reached $1.407 billion, up 70% year over year. US commercial revenue hit $507 million, rising 137% year over year, while US government revenue grew 66% to $570 million.
This morning added a new data point.
Palantir announced the renewal and expansion of its partnership with Stellantis for five more years, extending a collaboration that began in 2016.
Under the agreement, Stellantis will expand its use of Palantir Foundry, a unified data management platform, and begin deploying AIP (Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform), which integrates AI into existing workflows in a governed manner.
The stock rose in premarket trading on the news.
That pattern, positive catalysts followed by limited sustained follow-through, describes the PLTR experience in 2026.
CEO Alexander Karp called the Q4 results “indisputably the best results that I’m aware of in tech in the last decade” in an interview with CNBC.
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Is Palantir Undervalued Today?
The multiples make the case hard to ignore from either direction.
Its software peers are a different category entirely: per TIKR’s Competitors page, ServiceNow (NOW) trades at 23.85x forward earnings, SAP at 19.70x, and Intuit (INTU) at 17.10x.
Palantir’s premium is not incremental; it is structural, and it only makes sense if the growth trajectory is genuinely unlike anything else in software.
The Q4 earnings call made that case in concrete terms.
US commercial TCV bookings, the total value of new contracts signed in the period, reached $2.6 billion in Q4 alone, up 161% year over year.
Remaining deal value, contracted revenue not yet recognized, stood at $11.2 billion, up 105% year over year. Management guided 2026 full-year revenue to $7.182–$7.198 billion, well ahead of the $6.22 billion consensus at the time.
Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor told investors on the call: “We are the only enterprise software company that made a conscious choice to focus exclusively on scaling the leverage made possible by AI.”
That positioning has translated into contracts with existential switching costs.
The US Army’s framework agreement is valued at up to $10 billion, and the US Navy awarded Palantir up to $448 million to modernize the shipbuilding supply chain. These are production systems embedded in live operations, not pilots.
The bear case is also real.
Per the Q4 earnings call, international commercial revenue grew only 2% for full-year 2025, meaning the acceleration thesis depends almost entirely on the US market continuing to expand at triple-digit rates.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $143.06
- TIKR Mid-Case Target Price: $919.53
- Potential Total Return (mid-case): +542.8% over 4.8 years
- Mid-Case Annualized IRR: 47.70% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model uses the current price of $143.06 and targets $919.53 by 12/31/30. The two primary revenue drivers are accelerating AIP commercial adoption across US enterprises and compounding government contract revenue on top of existing Army and Navy frameworks. The margin driver is operating leverage on Palantir’s 82.4% LTM gross margin, per TIKR, with net income margins projected to reach 47.7% at mid-case as revenue scales faster than operating costs.
The upside: if AIP becomes the standard operating layer for AI deployment across enterprise and government, the high-case IRR of 48.2% may prove conservative. The downside: a multiple compression scenario, where revenue growth decelerates and the market re-rates toward peer-level multiples, would produce years of underperformance regardless of what the business delivers. At 108x forward earnings, the entry price matters as much as the growth story.
Conclusion: Watch US commercial revenue at Palantir’s next earnings report on May 11, 2026. If it sustains growth above 100% year over year and quarterly TCV bookings hold above $1 billion, the thesis that this drawdown was a reset rather than a peak holds. If growth decelerates materially, multiple compression becomes the dominant narrative.
Palantir is not a stock you buy because it is cheap. You buy it because you believe AIP is becoming irreplaceable infrastructure for AI deployment in government and enterprise, and that compounding that position through 2030 justifies today’s entry. The Q4 results gave investors reason to believe it. The 31% drawdown gives them a lower price to act on it.
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Should You Invest in Palantir?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Palantir, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Palantir alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
