Key Stats for SOFI Stock
- This-Week Performance: -10%
- 52-Week Range: $9 to $33
- Valuation Model Target Price: $33
- Implied Upside: 118%
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What Happened?
SoFi Technologies stock fell about 10% this week, finishing near $15 per share, as investor sentiment weakened following a short seller report, insider selling activity, and mixed institutional positioning despite continued business growth and new partnership announcements.
The stock dropped because Muddy Waters disclosed a short position and alleged at least $312 million of unrecorded debt, which pushed shares down about 6% intraday and triggered a broader selloff as investors reassessed the reliability of SoFi’s financial reporting and future profitability assumptions.
This week, SoFi pushed back on the claims, saying the report was “factually inaccurate and misleading” and that it is considering legal action, while CEO Anthony Noto bought about $500,000 of shares at roughly $17 per share, signaling confidence in the business.
At the same time, the company announced new loan platform agreements expected to generate over $3.6 billion in funding, including a $2 billion partnership over two years, highlighting continued demand for its loan platform, which originates loans and sells them to institutional partners. Street sentiment remains mixed with a median price target near $25.
Institutional activity showed both accumulation and selling pressure. SG Americas Securities increased its stake by 161.6% to about 902,000 shares worth roughly $24 million, while Swiss Life Asset Management raised its holdings by over 1,120% and Teamwork Financial Advisors boosted its position by 523.7%.
However, some investors sharply reduced exposure, including Mizuho Markets Cayman, which cut nearly its entire position, and insiders also sold shares, with EVP Kelli Keough selling about $165,000 worth of stock and CTO Jeremy Rishel selling roughly $1.66 million.
Lending-focused fintechs like SoFi tend to be more sensitive to credit concerns than payment-focused peers such as PayPal and Block, which helps explain why the stock reacted more sharply this week.
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Is SOFI Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 23.5%
- Operating Margins: 25.8%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 25.3x
SoFi’s growth is shifting from rapid expansion toward a more balanced model where profitability becomes the primary driver, with revenue expected to scale from about $4.7 billion in 2026 to over $6.7 billion by 2030 as growth moderates into the low double digits.
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The business is driven by three key segments: lending, which generates the majority of revenue today, financial services, which includes products like banking and investing that deepen customer relationships, and its technology platform, which provides infrastructure to other financial institutions and carries higher margins.
This mix matters because SoFi is increasingly funding loans with customer deposits instead of more expensive external capital, which supports margin expansion, while cross-selling multiple products to the same users increases lifetime value without requiring proportional marketing spend.
Over the next 12 months, performance is likely to be driven by continued loan growth, deposit growth lowering funding costs, and increasing contribution from fee-based segments, alongside clearer progress toward consistent profitability as operating leverage improves.
At current levels, SoFi appears undervalued, with future performance driven by margin expansion, ecosystem monetization, and execution on profitability rather than purely high revenue growth.
How Much Upside Does SOFI Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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