Key Stats for D-Wave Stock
- Current Price: $13.90
- Target Price (Mid): $22.14
- Street Target (Mean): $37.40
- Potential Total Return: +59.3%
- Annualized IRR: 10.3% / year
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What Happened?
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) has fallen nearly 70% from its 52-week high of $46.75, and the market is sharply divided on what comes next.
Bears point to persistent losses, a Q4 revenue miss, and ongoing insider selling. Bulls point to a January 2026 bookings surge that management says exceeded all of fiscal 2025 combined.
The central question: is this a genuine commercial inflection, or a story that keeps promising more than it delivers?
That tension sharpened when D-Wave reported Q4 2025 results on February 26, 2026.
Full-year revenue came in at $24.59 million, up 179% year over year. But Q4 revenue of $2.75 million missed estimates by 26.40%, and the stock fell 6.75% on the day. Evercore ISI and Mizuho both trimmed their price targets in response.
CEO Dr. Alan Baratz framed the results differently. On the earnings call, he called fiscal 2025 “an inflection point,” arguing that quantum computing moved decisively from research to real-world impact.
His case rested on three post-quarter announcements made the same day: a $20 million Advantage2 system sale to Florida Atlantic University, a two-year $10 million QCaaS (Quantum Computing as a Service, meaning cloud-delivered quantum computing sold on subscription) deal with a Fortune 100 company, and the acquisition of Quantum Circuits to expand into gate-model quantum computing. He added that January 2026 bookings alone exceeded all of fiscal 2025.
The defense announcement was equally significant. D-Wave, Anduril Industries, and Davidson Technologies announced a collaboration on quantum-classical hybrid applications for U.S. air and missile defense.
A proof-of-concept delivered at least 10x faster time-to-solution, a 9% to 12% improvement in threat mitigation, and the ability to intercept an additional 45 to 60 missiles in a 500-missile simulation versus classical-only methods.
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Is D-Wave Undervalued Today?
At $13.90, QBTS trades at an NTM EV/Revenue multiple of 98.58x against LTM revenue of $24.59 million and a market cap of $5.14 billion. That valuation only holds if the growth trajectory is real and durable.
The Street has not walked away.
Of 14 analysts covering QBTS, 12 rate it a Buy, 1 Outperform, 1 Hold, and 1 Sell. The mean price target is $37.40, sitting 169% above the current price. Even after Evercore ISI cut its target to $42 and Mizuho to $40 following Q4 results, neither firm abandoned its bullish stance.
The stock continues to trade well below where analysts think it should be, a gap that reflects the distance between a long-term thesis and a near-term earnings picture that keeps disappointing.
The structural case rests on two pillars. D-Wave is the only company building both annealing and gate-model quantum computers, a dual-platform position covering today’s optimization workloads and tomorrow’s broader compute applications.
The defense collaboration with Anduril and Davidson opens access to U.S. government budgets, with both firms being established recipients of major defense contracts, including missile defense work.
System sales are recognized on a percentage-of-completion basis, meaning the $20 million FAU deal spreads across multiple quarters rather than landing in a single period.
That treatment creates a persistent gap between the bookings headline and the income statement investors see each quarter.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
Key Stats:
- Current Price: $13.90
- Target Price (Mid): $22.14
- Potential Total Return: +59.3%
- Annualized IRR: 10.3% / year
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The TIKR mid-case targets $22.14 per share, implying a 59.3% total return and a 10.3% annualized IRR. The model assumes a 69.6% revenue CAGR driven by Advantage2 and Advantage3 system sales and QCaaS subscription growth across enterprise and government customers. The margin driver is gross margin durability: LTM gross margin of 82.6% is strong for a hardware-plus-services business, and the model holds it as revenue scales toward net income near breakeven in 2029.
The high case assumes a 76.6% revenue CAGR. If the Anduril and Davidson defense channel produces a system sales pipeline for 2027 deliveries as management guided, and if the Fortune 100 QCaaS contract catalyzes further enterprise wins, growth could track toward the high case. The low case assumes 62.7% CAGR, but the more immediate risk is another quarter of recognized revenue falling well short of bookings, which would pressure a stock already trading near its 52-week low of $5.77.
Conclusion: Watch Q1 2026 revenue on May 7, 2026. A meaningful sequential step-up from Q4’s $2.75 million would validate the commercial inflection thesis. A second consecutive miss would not. D-Wave is building a platform with genuine long-term relevance in defense and enterprise optimization, but at $13.90, the stock rewards execution.
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Should You Invest in D-Wave?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up D-Wave, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track D-Wave alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
