Key Stats for On Holding Stock
- Price change for On Holding stock: -6%
- $ONON Share Price as of Mar. 03: $44
- 52-Week High: $61
- $ONON Stock Price Target: $61
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What Happened?
On Holding (ONON) stock dropped 10% on Tuesday and later recovered 4% after the Swiss sneaker maker issued fiscal 2026 sales guidance that fell short of analyst expectations.
- The company forecast net sales growth of at least 23% at constant currency, translating to roughly CHF 3.44 billion ($4.38 billion).
- While still strong, this represents a significant slowdown from the 35.6% constant-currency growth On Holding delivered in fiscal 2025.
- The guidance fell short of analyst estimates of around CHF 3.7 billion, disappointing investors who had grown accustomed to the company’s explosive growth trajectory.
- On Holding stock had rallied 18% after the previous quarter when management raised guidance for the third consecutive time.
- Despite the guidance miss, On Holding’s Q4 results beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines.
- The company posted revenue of CHF 743.8 million vs estimates of CHF 723.5 million, and
- adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents versus expectations of 20 cents.
- Gross margin reached 63.9%, well above the 62.5% estimate.
Executive Co-Chairman and Co-Founder David Allemann emphasized the company is taking a “strategic” approach to growth rather than maximizing short-term sales.
He said that On Holding is building a brand for the next decades, not just the next few years, by carefully managing which channels, stores, and product franchises to push.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About On Holding Stock
The selloff in On Holding stock signals investor concern that the company’s exceptional growth period may be moderating.
While 23% growth would still outpace legacy competitors, it represents a sharp deceleration that some analysts view as a warning sign.
The guidance comes as On Holding enters the final year of its three-year strategy to double sales and reach 18% EBITDA margin by 2026.
The company has been taking market share from established brands by targeting what Allemann calls the “ageless athlete” with innovative performance footwear and premium positioning.
Regional performance showed Asia-Pacific as the standout, growing 85.1% in Q4, while the Americas grew 21.3%.
The company’s success in China contrasts sharply with Nike’s 17% sales decline there.
However, certain categories disappointed, with apparel and accessories sales coming in below estimates despite management’s focus on expanding beyond footwear.
Some analysts remain cautious on On Holding stock.
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik, who rates shares Underperform, warned in late February that “in a tougher pricing environment, and with competitive intensity rising, premium positioning alone may not be enough to sustain price-led growth.”
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
