Key Stats for Blue Owl Stock
- Pre-Market Price change for Blue Owl stock Today: -4%
- $OWL Share Price as of Mar. 3: $11
- 52-Week High: $22
- $OWL Stock Price Target: $17
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What Happened?
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) stock took another hit after Barclays downgraded the private credit firm from overweight to ‘Equal Weight’, citing concerns about slowing inflows and rising redemptions in its retail-focused funds.
The downgrade comes as the stock has already plunged 50% over the past year amid broader worries about the private credit industry.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish cut his rating on OWL stock and lowered his price target to $11, which represents just 4% upside from Friday’s close.
The analyst’s concern isn’t about deteriorating credit performance, but rather the numbers themselves.
Blue Owl Capital’s stock depends more heavily on non-traded business development companies (BDCs) than any other firm in Barclays’ coverage, with these funds accounting for roughly 20% of the company’s fee-related revenue.
The slowdown is stark. Blue Owl’s largest fund, OCIC, saw monthly inflows drop from around $600 million through November to just $208 million in February.
At the same time, quarterly redemptions jumped to over 5% of net asset value in Q4, translating to more than $1 billion in outflows.
Making matters worse, Blue Owl recently restricted withdrawals from one of its retail debt funds, OTIC, and announced plans to wind down the portfolio.
This move has raised questions about liquidity management across the private credit industry, especially as Wall Street has been pushing to expand these products to retail investors.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Blue Owl Stock
The market’s harsh reaction to Blue Owl Capital stock reflects growing skepticism about private credit’s exposure to the struggling software sector and concerns about whether retail investors truly understand the risks of semi-liquid investment products.
Despite management’s reassurances during the earnings call that credit metrics remain strong, with healthy portfolio company growth and minimal losses, investors appear unconvinced.
During last week’s earnings call, co-CEO Marc Lipschultz defended the firm’s software exposure, noting that Blue Owl’s tech lending portfolio has actually seen strong performance with 10% revenue growth and mid-teens EBITDA growth in Q4 alone.
The company also emphasized its low loan-to-value ratios of around 30% and an average annualized net loss rate of just 8 basis points.
However, Budish’s downgrade suggests these fundamentals may not be enough to offset the headwinds from slowing fundraising. He wrote that Blue Owl’s other non-traded BDC funds are “on track to be in outflow” going into 2026, creating a significant drag on earnings growth.
With Barclays joining the cautious camp, the path forward looks uncertain.
While the company reported strong Q4 results, with record fundraising of $17 billion and assets under management crossing $300 billion, the momentum may be fading fast as we move through 2026.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
