Key Takeaways for Novartis Stock as of September 2026
- Record Selloff: Novartis stock crashed 11% on Tuesday, September 8, its worst single trading day on record, after the del-desiran Phase III HARBOR trial for myotonic dystrophy missed its primary endpoint.
- Second Miss in Days: Pelacarsen missed its late-stage trial four days earlier, Novartis’s second setback in a week.
- Street Still Bullish: 23 analysts covering Novartis stock split 5 buys, 4 outperforms, 10 holds, 1 underperform and 3 sells, with the mean target sitting 12% above the post-selloff close.
- Model Sees Deep Upside: The mid case valuation model values Novartis stock at $225 by late 2030, implying 63% total return, or 12% annualized, from the current $138 price.
Two failed trials in a week wiped roughly $32 billion off Novartis’s market value. See how the model still finds upside on TIKR for free →
Why Novartis Stock Crashed 11% on a Failed Muscle Disease Drug
Novartis (NOVN) stock crashed 11% on Tuesday, September 8, its worst single trading day on record, after the drugmaker said its experimental therapy delpacibart etedesiran (del-desiran) failed to hit the main goal of a Phase III trial. The slide erased roughly $32 billion from Novartis’s market value in a single session.
The trial, called HARBOR, tested del-desiran in myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), a genetic muscle-wasting disease with no approved treatments. The drug missed its primary endpoint: a statistically significant improvement over placebo in video hand opening time, the trial’s measure of how quickly a patient’s hand relaxes after making a fist. Novartis picked up del-desiran through its $12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences, so the miss lands directly on CEO Vas Narasimhan’s dealmaking strategy.
“This recent setback would have dented confidence in its acquisition strategy given the size of the deal and the relatively high expectations of success for del-desiran,” said James Eugene, an analyst at Novartis shareholder Verso Investment Management. The drug, he added, should have been a “must win” for the company.
The reaction rippled well beyond Novartis. Shares of Dyne Therapeutics, which is developing a rival DM1 treatment using the same hand-opening measure, tumbled as much as 22%. Sarepta Therapeutics fell 9% and PepGen dropped more than 5%, as investors marked down the whole muscle-disease drug class on the read-through.
One failed rare-disease drug does not, by itself, break Novartis’s long-term case. But it strips out a growth asset the market had counted on to help offset Entresto’s coming patent cliff, and it puts everything else in the pipeline under sharper scrutiny.
NOVN Stock’s Second Blow: Pelacarsen’s Cardiovascular Trial Failure
Four days before del-desiran missed, Novartis and partner Ionis Pharmaceuticals disclosed that pelacarsen, an injectable drug targeting the inherited cholesterol particle Lp(a), failed to reduce heart attacks and strokes in the Phase III HORIZON study. The drug lowered Lp(a) levels as expected across more than 8,000 patients tracked for over six years. It just didn’t translate that into fewer cardiac events. Novartis stock slipped only about 3% on the news at the time, a mild reaction given the size of the readout.
The failure spilled into the broader cholesterol-drug sector too. Amgen shares fell as investors reassessed its rival olpasiran program ahead of late-stage data expected in 2027 or 2028, and Royalty Pharma, which holds a royalty stake tied to pelacarsen, dropped as well. What read as an isolated miss on September 4 became a pattern by September 8. Patterns move stocks harder than single events do, and that is what turned a 3% dip into an 11% rout in less than a week.
Two of Novartis’s three key growth drugs missed trials in the same week. See how the model treats the rest of the pipeline on TIKR for free →
Novartis Stock’s Analysts Haven’t Cut Targets Despite the Selloff
Coverage on Novartis stock runs deep. TIKR’s tracked ratings on the name split 5 buys, 4 outperforms, 10 holds, 1 underperform and 3 sells as of September 8, and the mean target sits at CHF126, 12% above that day’s CHF112 close.
That target hasn’t budged the way the stock has. Back in June 2025, with Novartis trading near CHF96, the mean target sat at just CHF94, essentially in line with the price. By June 2026, ahead of the trial failures, the stock had climbed to CHF127 and the mean target followed it up to CHF124. Even after September’s slide knocked the price back down to CHF112, the mean target kept rising, to CHF126, its highest reading across the five quarters shown. The number of analysts contributing price targets grew too, from 19 in mid-2025 to 21 now, and the buy-rated count climbed from 3 to 5 over the same stretch while sell ratings held flat at 3. Analysts are holding their ground through two failed trials in one week, not chasing the stock down.
TIKR Values NOVN Stock at $225, Even After the Twin Trial Failures
TIKR’s mid case model values Novartis stock at $225 by December 2030, implying 63% total return from the current price of $138, or 12% annualized over 4.3 years.
A 12% annualized return is the kind of number growth investors chase in software, not the mid single digit total returns typical of large cap pharma names working through patent expirations. The model can absorb one failed rare disease drug because del-desiran and pelacarsen were never the whole thesis.
Remibrutinib already cleared its multiple sclerosis trial earlier this month, Novartis’s base business keeps expanding at a 5% to 6% compound rate through 2030, and the Street’s own mean target still sits above where the stock trades today. Two missed readouts hurt the pipeline’s optionality. They don’t break the core valuation case.
Novartis’s model still points to $225 and 63% upside despite the week it just had. Run the numbers yourself on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Novartis AG?
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Pull up Novartis AG stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
