Key Stats for Nike Stock
- Current Price: $38.77
- Target Price (Mid): ~$78
- Street Target: ~$50
- Potential Total Return: ~102%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
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What Happened?
Nike, Inc. (NKE) trades at $38.77, near a 12-year low, and the people paid to value it cannot agree on what it is worth. In August 2026, J.P. Morgan cut the stock to Underweight with a $40 target. Across the 34 analysts covering it, the 12-month mean sits near $50, the low at $23, and the single highest estimate at $94.
The disagreement is about time: how long the turnaround takes, and how much the cleanup costs before it works. That question separates the near-term Street targets from the TIKR model’s longer-dated $78, which assumes a recovery playing out over the next 4.7 years. Nike’s own investor relations materials frame fiscal 2026 as the year the foundation was rebuilt.
Why the Bears Anchor on $40
When J.P. Morgan’s Matthew Boss downgraded Nike to Underweight with a $40 target, his argument was that the Win Now restructuring, the deliberate reset CEO Elliott Hill launched in late 2024, would keep pressuring earnings into fiscal 2028. In that read, the stock looks cheaper than it is because those earnings are still absorbing restructuring drag.
Full-year revenue was flat on a reported basis at $46.4 billion and down 2% currency-neutral. Greater China fell 17% currency-neutral in Q4 (12% reported) as Nike cut sell-in to clear inventory. Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear, together, roughly half of revenue, both declined double digits and are guided to stay negative through fiscal 2027. Departing CFO Matthew Friend, on his final call after nearly 18 years, was candid that the operating environment “became more challenging as we progressed through the quarter,” with retail sales decelerating from mid-April. A separate mid-August note from RBC, published after the firm hosted Hill for investor meetings, struck the same chord: execution is taking longer than management anticipated.
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Why the Bulls See a Higher Number
Running has delivered five straight quarters of double-digit growth and gained five points of statement-footwear market share, proof that Nike can still make products people want. Wholesale revenue grew 4% for the year, led by double-digit North America growth, and Friend stressed the North America gain “wasn’t just a wholesale comp” but reflected lower returns, cancellations and discounts, a structurally healthier mix. Management is confident enough in that trajectory to rebuild its Chief Commercial Officer role, hiring Walmart veteran Jane Ewing on August 27, 2026, to lead the global marketplace, a position Nike had eliminated under Win Now.
Nike trades at 15.3 times forward EV/EBITDA and about 1.3 times forward revenue. That is a premium to Adidas at 1.1 times revenue and roughly in line with lululemon at 1.3 times, but a fraction of Hermès at 8.3 times. For a brand still generating billions in free cash flow, the bulls argue the market is pricing a permanent impairment that the fundamentals do not support. The $23-to-$94 spread across the Street comes down to one belief: whether fiscal 2026 was the earnings trough.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $38.77
- Target Price (Mid): ~$78
- Potential Total Return: ~102%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
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The TIKR model uses the mid-case scenario, which is realized on May 31, 2031. It lands near $78, above the entire Street mean of $50, implying a total return of roughly 102% and an annualized return of about 16% per year over 4.7 years. The model favors the bull outcome, but on a longer clock than the 12-month Street targets assume.
- Revenue drivers: the marketplace rebuild, wholesale reacceleration led by North America and now backed by a dedicated commercial chief; and performance sport, where Running, Global Football, and Training compound as the classic-footwear drag rolls off. The model assumes revenue growth of around 4% annually, a clear inflection from the flat present.
- Margin driver: the supply-chain reset. Management is cutting facilities and reshaping product flow, actions that cost nearly $400 million in severance in fiscal 2026 but are expected to expand gross margin from fiscal 2027, rebuilding net margin toward roughly 8%.
- Primary risk: time. If Greater China’s reset runs long, or Sportswear fails to reinflect in the fiscal 2027 back half, the low case applies, and the annual return compresses toward 9%, near where J.P. Morgan already sits.
- Upside vs downside: the upside is a faster margin recovery and brand heat returning across both channels, which pushes the return above the mid case; the downside is simply a longer wait than the model assumes.
Conclusion
The split gets adjudicated on November 16 and 17, 2026, when Hill unveils the post-Win Now growth strategy at Investor Day. Watch one specific thing: whether management commits to hard fiscal 2028 margin and revenue targets, the year J.P. Morgan expects cleanup costs to peak. Concrete numbers would pull the low end of the range toward the mean. Another round of “it takes time” would validate the $40 camp and likely keep the stock near its lows into the new year.
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Should You Invest in Nike?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Nike, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Nike alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
