Key Takeaways for Netflix Stock as of September 2026
- Year-Long Slide: Netflix stock has fallen 33.5% over the past year to $83 as of September 3, weighed down by its scrapped Warner Bros Discovery bid and a Q2 guide that undercut Wall Street’s revenue estimate.
- Street Split: Wall Street carries 28 buys, 7 outperforms, and 16 holds on Netflix stock, with a $94 mean target sitting 13% above the current price.
- Model Upside: TIKR’s mid-case model prices Netflix stock at $169 by December 2030, implying 104% total return, or 18% annualized, from today’s $83.
- Target Reset: Analysts have cut the mean target 31% from its $136 peak last September.
Why Netflix Stock Is Still Down 34% After Its Warner Bros Retreat
Netflix (NFLX) stock has dropped 33.5% over the past year, a decline that has taken shares from $120 last September to $83 by September 3, even after a 16% bounce off the June low. The chart tells two stories stitched together: a bidding war Netflix walked away from on purpose, and an earnings report that reopened the wound just as the first one was healing.
The first cut came in December 2025, when Netflix’s pursuit of Warner Bros Discovery sent shares down sharply as investors balked at the price tag. Netflix walked away three months later, in February 2026, refusing to match Paramount Skydance’s higher offer and calling the deal “no longer financially attractive.” Shares jumped more than 10% on the news. But growth questions never fully went away, and Netflix’s Q2 2026 print reopened them: a Q3 revenue guide of $12.86 billion missed the Street’s $13.01 billion estimate, margin guidance ticked lower, and the company said it would report viewing-hours data less often, a change some investors read as reduced transparency. NFLX stock fell to a 52-week low within days.
Accordingly, on the Q2 earnings call, CFO Spencer Neumann pushed back on reading too much into the quarter-to-quarter deceleration: “We don’t manage the business on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Our goal is to sustain healthy revenue and profit growth… halfway through the year, we’re making strong progress against our goals, and we’re tracking to our financial plan for 2026.” That framing matters because the stock’s move since the June 30 low, up 16% to $83, suggests some of that message is landing, even if the Street hasn’t fully closed the gap.
Netflix Stock’s Street Targets Have Finally Caught Up to the Selloff
Wall Street’s current read on Netflix stock is 28 buys, 7 outperforms, and 16 holds, with a mean price target of $94 that sits 13% above the $83 close.
That 13% gap is actually a return to normal. A year ago, the mean target sat at $136 while the stock traded near $120, a Target/Close ratio of 113%, almost identical to today’s spread. In between, the two lines diverged hard. As shares cratered toward $94 by year-end 2025 on the Warner Bros overhang, analysts trimmed their target only modestly, to $126, pushing implied upside as high as 35%. By June 2026, after the stock’s post-earnings low of $71, that gap had widened further still, with a $114 mean target implying 60% upside, the widest premium on the table.
The past two quarters closed that gap from both directions. Analysts cut the mean target another 18%, from $114 to $94, while the stock itself rallied 16% off its low. Coverage has rebuilt too, climbing from 38 analysts publishing a target at the December low to 45 today. That’s the Street converging on a number close to where it stood before the Warner Bros saga began, not a signal that the worst is necessarily over.
TIKR Values Netflix Stock at $169, Pricing In a Post-Slide Rebound
TIKR’s mid-case model values Netflix at $169 by December 2030, implying a 104% total return from the current price of $83, or 18% annualized over the next 4.3 years.
That return path would place Netflix stock among the market’s higher-conviction large-cap growth compounders, well ahead of what a broad index run rate typically offers over the same stretch.
The model’s optimism tracks the Street’s own repositioning. Analysts have pulled the mean target back down near where it sat before the Warner Bros episode began, the stock has already clawed back 16% off its June low, and management backed that read with a record $4.7 billion buyback in the same quarter that rattled the market.
Should You Invest in Netflix, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Netflix, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Netflix, Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
