Key Takeaways for Samsara Stock as of September 2026
- Beat Across the Board: Samsara’s fiscal Q2 revenue hit $508.44M, up 29.88% YoY and 5.20% above Street’s $483.30M estimate, while adjusted EPS of $0.20 topped consensus by 27.36%.
- Guidance Lift: Samsara guided FY27 revenue to $2.043B-$2.047B, implying 26% YoY growth, with non-GAAP EPS at $0.76-$0.78.
- $100K+ Customer Surge: Samsara added a record 242 $100K+ ARR customers this quarter.
- Free Cash Flow Trade-off: CFO Dominic Phillips said FCF margin will run ~100bps below FY26 as Samsara prebuys inventory to meet surging device demand.
Samsara’s Record Q2 Beat Comes With a Free Cash Flow Catch
Samsara (IOT) turned in a fiscal second-quarter beat that reset the bar for Samsara stock, with revenue of $508.44 million, up 29.88% year over year and 5.20% ahead of the $483.30 million Street estimate. It marked Samsara’s fourth straight quarter of topping both its own guide and outside estimates, and its fourth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability.
Annual recurring revenue, the subscription base that renews automatically each year, crossed $2.1 billion in the quarter, growing 30% year over year on $134 million of net new ARR. That net new figure is up 28% from a year ago, a sign the expansion engine is accelerating rather than compounding off a larger base. Samsara’s $100,000-plus ARR customer cohort grew 38% year over year to $1.3 billion and now makes up 63% of total ARR, up from 59% a year earlier. The company added a record 242 of those large customers in the quarter, plus a record 20 customers spending $1 million or more annually.
CFO Dominic Phillips tied that customer strength directly to a free cash flow guide cut on the Q2 earnings call: “We’re just growing faster than we expected. Growth is accelerating, and that requires more of these IoT devices to support that growth. And because we pay for these devices upfront, but the revenue that we get from them lags, it gets recognized ratably over the customer contract.” Samsara now expects full-year free cash flow margin to land roughly 100 basis points below fiscal 2026, even as non-GAAP operating margin held at 21%, up 6 points year over year.
That gap between operating margin and free cash flow is the quarter’s central tension for Samsara stock. Management is prebuying inventory and absorbing higher supply chain costs to keep pace with demand for AI Dash Cams and vehicle gateways, hardware that enables new software attach like Ground Intelligence and Waste Intelligence. Phillips called the dynamic temporary, pointing to a similar post-pandemic pattern when device costs normalized as supply caught up. Unit economics look intact: 96% of $100,000-plus customers now subscribe to two or more products, and net new bookings from emerging products have stayed above 20% for three straight quarters.
For the fiscal third quarter, Samsara guided revenue to $514 million to $516 million, implying 24% year-over-year growth, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.18 to $0.19. Full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance sits at $2.043 billion to $2.047 billion, a 26% growth rate, with non-GAAP EPS guided to $0.76 to $0.78. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 in the quarter beat the Street’s $0.16 estimate by 27.36%, and net income of $117.35 million came in 26.95% ahead of expectations, a signal that scale is finally working in Samsara’s favor.
TIKR Values Samsara Stock at $89, Pricing In Sustained Large-Customer Growth
TIKR’s mid-case model values Samsara at $89 by January 2031, implying a 130% total return from the current price of $39, or 21% annualized over the next 4.4 years.
That annualized return sits well above what investors typically expect from established enterprise software names, reflecting the model’s confidence that Samsara can sustain its current growth trajectory for years rather than quarters.
The target is grounded in the same dynamics driving this quarter’s beat: a $100,000-plus customer cohort now generating 63% of total ARR and emerging products holding above 20% of net new bookings for three consecutive quarters. Samsara stock’s path to that valuation runs through the same large-enterprise expansion cycle that produced this quarter’s record customer additions, not a reacceleration of some dormant growth driver.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
