Key Takeaways:
- Big 3 Acceleration: Thomson Reuters’ core Legal, Corporates, and Tax segments grew organic revenue 10% in Q2, up from 9% in recent quarters.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, TRI stock could reach $144.91 by December 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 29.8% from the current price of $111.67.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 11.8% growth per year over the next 2.3 years.
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Thomson Reuters (TRI) delivered a strong Q2, with total organic revenue growing 8% and its core “Big 3” segments, Legal, Corporates, and Tax, accelerating to 10% growth. Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% to $745 million.
CEO Steve Hasker highlighted growing traction from the company’s AI products. Legal Professionals revenue, excluding government, grew 11%, driven by Westlaw and CoCounsel Legal.
The Corporates segment also grew 10%, helped by a 24% jump in transaction revenue and strong momentum at Pagero, its tax compliance platform.
Management raised full-year guidance, now expecting total revenue growth of about 8% and Big 3 growth of 9.5% to 10%. Free cash flow guidance stayed at roughly $2.1 billion for the year.
In July, Thomson Reuters agreed to sell a 51% stake in its Global Print business to KKR for about $500 million.
The deal sharpens the company’s focus on its core AI-driven fiduciary businesses and is expected to add 60 to 70 basis points to organic revenue growth once it closes in Q4.
The company also unveiled Thomson, its own proprietary large language model, built for a modest $40 million and trained on less than 10% of its legal content so far.
Early benchmarks show it performing on par with leading frontier AI models.
Despite this momentum, TRI trades at $111.67, well below its 2025 highs. Our model sees real upside from here.
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What the Model Says for Thomson Reuters Stock
Thomson Reuters serves lawyers, accountants, and tax professionals with tools that combine deep proprietary content with AI. That combination is becoming its biggest advantage.
CoCounsel, the company’s AI legal assistant, passed 1 million users and recently launched a rebuilt, fully agentic version in beta.
Management says usage and daily engagement are climbing, not just signups, which is the more important signal for durable revenue.
The Thomson language model adds another layer of opportunity. Because it was trained on the company’s own high-quality legal and tax content rather than massive amounts of generic data, it delivers strong results at a fraction of the cost of running third-party AI models.
That should support margins as AI usage scales across the platform.
Roughly 32% of Thomson Reuters’ annualized contract value now comes from GenAI-enabled products, up from 30% just one quarter earlier.
That share should keep climbing as CoCounsel and Thomson-powered features roll out more broadly.
Using a forecast of 8.2% annual revenue growth and 31.6% net income margins, our model projects the stock could climb to $144.91 within 2.3 years.
This assumes a 22.5x price-to-earnings multiple, below TRI’s current 23.5x multiple and well under its five-year average near 40x.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for TRI stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 8.2%
Thomson Reuters grew revenue just 3% over the past year, but that understates the current trajectory.
Q2 organic growth hit 8%, with the Big 3 segments now at 10%, driven by AI product adoption across Legal, Corporates, and Tax.
2. Operating margins: 24.5%
Net income margin sat at 23.4% over the trailing twelve months.
Management expects continued margin expansion as automation savings, easing severance costs, and the Global Print divestiture streamline the business.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 22.5x
TRI currently trades at 23.5x forward earnings, a steep discount to its three-, five-, and ten-year averages, all above 37x.
Our model assumes a similar multiple going forward rather than a return to those historical premiums.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Thomson Reuters’ growth depends on how fast its AI products scale and how well it executes the Global Print separation. Here’s how the stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to a 6.8% CAGR and net income margins settle at 23.1%, investors could still see a 23.7% total return (5.0% annually).
- Mid Case: With 7.6% growth and 24.5% margins, we expect a total return of 52.4% (10.2% annually).
- High Case: If CoCounsel and the Thomson model drive faster AI adoption, pushing 8.3% revenue growth and 25.5% margins, returns could reach 82.6% total (14.9% annually).
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The range reflects execution on CoCounsel adoption, the Thomson AI model, and AI-driven data demand in the market despite divesting from print media.
In the low case, AI adoption does not go as planned and results in lost revenue or margin.
In the high case, if CoCounsel and the Thomson model drive faster AI adoption than anticipated, and margins improve ahead of schedule as AI workloads drive pricing power.
How Much Upside Does Thomson Reuters Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
