Key Stats for Nike Stock
- Current Price: $44.69
- Target Price (Mid): ~$91
- Street Target: ~$62
- Potential Total Return: ~103%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
- Earnings Reaction: -15.51% (March 31, 2026)
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What Happened?
Nike (NKE) has dropped roughly 44% from its 52-week high of $80.17 and is trading near levels not seen since 2014.
Bulls see a world-class brand on sale. Bears see a company with a China problem, a margin problem, and a timeline that keeps getting extended.
The unresolved question is whether Elliott Hill’s restructuring is actually moving fast enough.
On April 23, Nike announced it would eliminate approximately 1,400 roles, about 2% of its global workforce, with the majority concentrated in its technology department, marking its second round of layoffs in 2026.
Chief Operating Officer Venkatesh Alagirisamy confirmed in a note to staff that the cuts align with the “Win Now” transformation plan, focused on consolidating technology operations into key hubs at Nike’s Oregon headquarters and its India-based technology center. NKE edged higher in after-hours trading, the market reading the cuts as necessary surgery, not distress.
That same week, an SEC Form 4 filing confirmed that President and CEO Elliott Hill had purchased more than 23,000 shares at approximately $42 on April 13. That followed Nike board member and Apple CEO Tim Cook purchasing 25,000 shares on April 10, also near Nike’s 52-week low of $42.09.
Two well-informed insiders buying with their own money near the floor is a signal worth noting, even if it isn’t a guarantee.
Those purchases came three weeks after a Q3 fiscal 2026 report that beat on revenue ($11.28 billion, flat year over year) and EPS ($0.35 vs. $0.28 estimated). The stock still fell 15.51% the next session because management guided Q4 revenue down 2% to 4% against a consensus expecting growth, and projected Greater China revenue to fall roughly 20% in the current quarter.
That guidance pushed shares to their lowest point in over a decade.
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Is Nike Undervalued Today?
Nike’s valuation multiples tell the clearest story. The stock now trades at 18.86x NTM EV/EBITDA, down from over 30x a year ago, a sharp de-rating for a brand generating over $46 billion in annual revenue and paying a 4.1% dividend yield. The Street mean target sits at $61.68, implying roughly 38% upside from current prices, yet fewer than half of the 39 analysts covering Nike carry a buy-equivalent rating.
Disagreement about the recovery timeline is genuine.
Against peers on the TIKR Competitors page, Nike at 1.50x NTM EV/Revenue sits below the sector median of 1.78x, below Ralph Lauren (RL) at 2.77x, and below On Holding (ONON) at 2.52x. Ralph Lauren, a comparable lifestyle brand at a similar revenue scale, now trades at a higher multiple than Nike, a notable reversal. On Holding is a faster-growing business and earns its premium.
The discount to peers reflects execution risk, but the question is whether the market has overpriced that risk at current levels.
The bear case centers on two problems without quick fixes. Greater China revenue fell 7% in Q3 to $1.62 billion, and management guided for an approximately 20% decline in the current quarter as Nike deliberately reduces sell-in and cleans excess inventory. Converse revenue fell 35% to $264 million across all territories. Meanwhile, gross margin compressed 130 basis points to 40.2% in Q3, with tariffs alone accounting for 300 basis points of pressure in North America.
What the bulls are watching is already happening.
North America wholesale grew 11% in Q3, with all channels in North America growing simultaneously for the first time in two years. Nike Running was up over 20% for the quarter. Global Football is the next category being converted to what management calls the “sport offense,” with the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a commercial launch platform for the new Mercurial boot in June.
As CEO Elliott Hill said on the Q3 earnings call: “We have approached this comeback deliberately across brands, sports, geographies, and channels, with some parts of the portfolio moving faster than others.”
CFO Matthew Friend has committed to a specific timeline: gross margin expansion is expected to begin in Q2 fiscal 2027 as tariff mitigation actions take effect and Win Now restructuring costs roll off.
Friend stated: “Win Now actions will continue to impact results over the balance of the calendar year, and we remain confident in our ability to position the Company for profitable growth long-term.” The 1,400 layoffs announced this week are the next cost reset within that plan.
Whether the margin inflection arrives on schedule is the single biggest variable for the stock.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $44.69
- Target Price (Mid): ~$91
- Potential Total Return: ~103%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model targets approximately $91 by May 31, 2030, a potential total return of around 103%, or roughly 19% annualized. The two primary revenue CAGR drivers are North America wholesale re-acceleration and eventual Greater China stabilization as marketplace cleanup concludes. The margin driver is the unwinding of restructuring costs and tariff headwinds as the leaner cost structure flows through the income statement, with the TIKR model projecting net income margins recovering toward around 7% by 2030.
The upside scenario: North America momentum carries into fiscal 2027, the World Cup campaign makes football a second growth engine alongside Running, and an upcoming Investor Day in Beaverton gives institutional investors the long-term earnings framework they have been waiting for. The downside: China deteriorates beyond management’s fiscal 2027 timeline, and the current multiple compresses further before earnings recover.
At around 19% annualized, the mid-case return is compelling for a brand of this quality, but it depends entirely on margin recovery arriving on schedule.
Conclusion
Watch gross margin at Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on June 25, 2026. If gross margin prints at or above 41.5% and Greater China doesn’t overshoot the guided 20% decline, the recovery thesis stays intact.
Nike is a brand restructuring at the bottom of its cycle, cutting costs deliberately, with insiders putting their own capital behind the thesis. The TIKR mid-case says patient investors could roughly double their money by May 2030. Whether that happens depends on one thing: whether the margin recovery arrives when management says it will.
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Should You Invest in Nike?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Nike, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Nike alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
