Key Stats for Netflix Stock
- Current Price: $93.08
- Target Price (Mid): ~$191
- Street Target: ~$114
- Potential Total Return: ~106%
- Annualized IRR: ~17% / year
- Earnings Reaction: (9.72%) on April 17, 2026
- Max Drawdown: (43.35%) on 2/12/26
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What Happened?
Netflix (NFLX) fell 9.72% on April 17 in one of the more confusing post-earnings sessions of this cycle. The company beat revenue estimates, held its full-year guidance, and confirmed advertising is on track to double. Yet shares closed below $100. Bulls see a textbook overreaction to a single quarter’s guidance. Bears say the market is finally pricing in a business that no longer has a subscriber count to rally around.
Q1 revenue grew 16% year over year, and operating income grew 18%, both ahead of guidance due to slightly higher-than-planned subscription revenue. The actual Q1 revenue came in at $12,249.76 million against an estimate of $12,173.11 million, a 0.63% beat per TIKR.
The problem was the outlook. Netflix guided Q2 2026 revenue to $12.5 billion, below the $12.6 billion analysts expected, and its EPS forecast of $0.78 came in below the $0.84 expected.
The shareholder letter explained that Q2 will carry the highest year-over-year content amortization growth rate of 2026, before decelerating to mid-to-high single-digit growth in the second half, with operating margin expansion in Q3 and Q4 needed to deliver the full-year 31.5% target. In short, Q2 is the most expensive quarter by design.
The full-year numbers have not changed.
The other headline was governance. Co-founder Reed Hastings, the company’s current chairman, will exit the board in June when his term expires.
Operating leadership, Co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, remains unchanged. The stock now sits 31% below its 52-week high of $134.12.
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Is Netflix Undervalued Today?
The selloff has pushed Netflix to valuation multiples it has not traded at since the early stages of its recovery. At 27.82x NTM P/E and 21.94x NTM EV/EBITDA, both figures sit well below the 50.14x and 40.03x the stock commanded at its June 2025 peak. The multiple has roughly halved. The business has kept growing.
Part of that compression is structural. Netflix stopped reporting quarterly subscriber counts in 2025, removing the metric investors used as a growth shorthand for a decade. What replaced it, advertising and pricing power, is real but slower to show up in a single quarter’s numbers.
The shareholder letter confirmed advertising revenue remains on track to reach $3 billion in 2026, doubling year over year, and that recent price changes have gone well. Advertiser count has grown 70% year over year to over 4,000.
The peer comparison puts the current multiple in context. Spotify trades at 27.58x NTM EV/EBITDA, nearly the same as Netflix, despite generating far less free cash flow and running a much earlier-stage ad business. Warner Bros. Discovery sits at 11.81x, but that discount reflects heavy acquisition debt and declining linear TV assets. Netflix trades between these two at 21.94x while carrying net debt of just 0.30x EBITDA and generating $26.4 billion in LTM levered free cash flow.
There is a real risk embedded in the bear case. According to Deloitte’s 2026 Digital Media Trends report, U.S. households spent an average of $69 per month on streaming in 2025, flat from the year before, even as prices kept rising.
Netflix tested that ceiling again in March with its third price hike in two years. If subscriber churn accelerates faster than ad revenue grows, the monetization math breaks down.
The structural argument on the other side is that Netflix’s engagement layer keeps expanding beyond what price sensitivity alone determines. The company’s primary internal quality engagement metric hit an all-time high in Q1, while Netflix still accounts for an estimated 5% of global TV viewing share and has penetrated less than 45% of its total addressable market of broadband households.
The live events strategy is already generating concrete results: the World Baseball Classic, exclusive to Japan, drew 31.4 million viewers and sparked the largest single-day sign-up surge in the country, while the BTS Comeback Live reached 18.4 million global viewers and hit the Top 10 in 80 countries.
The upcoming Tyson Fury vs. Anthony Joshua heavyweight fight in the UK extends that playbook into a market where live sports commands premium ad rates.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $93.08
- Target Price (Mid): ~$191
- Potential Total Return: ~106%
- Annualized IRR: ~17% / year
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The TIKR mid-case targets around $191 by 12/31/30, implying roughly 106% total return and around 17% annualized IRR from today’s price of $93.08.
The two revenue CAGR drivers behind the around 10% forecast are advertising monetization and international ARPU expansion, which refers to average revenue per user outside North America. Advertising is in its first full year on Netflix’s own in-house ad tech stack, and the transition from third-party to proprietary infrastructure typically unlocks better targeting and higher fill rates. International ARPU still lags domestic levels across most markets, with price increases historically following subscriber density with a multi-year lag.
The margin driver is operating leverage. TIKR consensus estimates show net income margins expanding from 24.3% in 2025 to around 33% by 12/31/30. The primary risk is engagement dilution: if viewing hours per household erode faster than ad revenue per hour grows, the model’s assumptions stall. The high case reaches around $366 with an IRR of around 17%; the low case lands around $217 with an IRR of around 10%. The Street’s mean target of around $114 suggests analysts have not yet given Netflix full credit for the advertising build-out or the live events layer.
Conclusion
Watch Q2 2026 operating margin when Netflix reports in mid-July. The company guided to 32.6%, a 150 basis point decline from the year-ago quarter’s 34.1%, entirely due to content timing management, which has already been disclosed. If margin holds at or above guidance through the heaviest spend quarter of the year, the back half of 2026 becomes a margin expansion story, and the post-earnings overhang clears.
Netflix is a cash-generative platform trading at half its peak multiple, with an advertising business doubling toward $3 billion and live events already moving subscriber growth in individual markets. At around $93, the TIKR model suggests the market is paying a fair price for a business that still has more than half of its addressable market to reach.
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Should You Invest in Netflix?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Netflix, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Netflix alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
