Key Stats for Navitas Stock
- Current Price: $8.63
- Target Price (Mid): ~$18
- Street Target: ~$14
- Potential Total Return: ~104%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
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What Happened?
Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) rose 3.48% to $8.63 on October 19 as chip stocks snapped an eight-session losing streak, with no company news behind the move. The bounce barely dents the damage. Shares remain 25.7% below their September 30 close of $11.61, though they are up 20.9% in 2026. On October 16, Navitas fell 9.64%, more than double the Philadelphia semiconductor index’s 3.8% drop, on AI-funding worries, Chinese competition, and rate fears.
Navitas’s October releases, posted in its investor relations materials, covered new products, the Claros closing, and its Q3 date. CEO Chris Allexandre has already set the test for the stock. It starts with third-quarter results after the close on November 3.
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Allexandre Says 800 Volts Arrives in Four Steps
At Citi’s Global TMT Conference on September 8, Allexandre said some investors still treat the shift to 800-volt AI racks as a single date. “This is actually not a digital switch,” he said. He laid out four stages:
- Higher-power silicon carbide supplies now
- “Sidecar” power racks in the first half of 2027
- Fully 800-volt racks from late 2027 into early 2028
- Grid upgrades from 2028
Each stage adds content. He estimated GaN at about $15,000 per megawatt inside the data center and silicon carbide plus protection chips at about $10,000. The grid adds another $10,000, and maybe up to $15,000 in the long run. He also said many chip designers are “underclocking their processor because they can’t get enough power delivered.”
Navitas is lining up for each stage:
- September 28: It announced a U.S. Army selection to develop a domestic manufacturing process for 10 kV silicon carbide chips. No contract value was disclosed.
- October 6: It closed its Claros acquisition, adding power chips that mount beneath the processor’s board or inside its package.
- October 12: It showed a 24 kW board developed with Nvidia (NVDA).
None of that is booked revenue. STMicroelectronics (STM) and Texas Instruments (TXN) have shown their own 800-volt designs for Nvidia’s architecture, and Allexandre tied Claros revenue to 2028.
November 3 Opens the Test Allexandre Set
Allexandre named the proof himself: “give us 2, 3 more quarters of double-digit consistent growth and I think this goes away.” Navitas guided Q3 revenue to $13.5 million, plus or minus $0.5 million. That is 28% above Q2’s $10.53 million. Analysts expect $13.50 million for Q3 and $15.10 million for Q4.
Revenue topped the Street average in each of the last five quarters, yet shares fell the next session after four of those reports. That includes a 12.27% drop on July 28, after Q2 brought a $228.2 million GAAP net loss. Of that loss, $203.1 million was a non-cash earnout charge.
Q2 free cash flow was negative $32.21 million versus a negative $24.70 million estimate. Shares outstanding rose to 261.09 million by July 24 from 233.7 million on May 1. Navitas sold about 17.4 million shares through at-the-market offerings in May and June, a source of share dilution.
Five of eight analysts rate the stock Hold and one rates it Sell. Navitas is also in litigation with Renesas and Wolfspeed, and the claims on both sides are unproven.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $8.63
- Target Price (Mid): ~$18
- Potential Total Return: ~104%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
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The mid case, TIKR’s base scenario, carries a target of around $18. That rounds to the same mid-case target TIKR cited on August 28, when shares sat at $11.49, and the implied return was about 53%. The price fell, so the implied return roughly doubled to about 104%, or around 19% a year over 4.2 years.
The path leans on revenue, with consensus climbing from $47.69 million in 2026 to $123.90 million in 2028. Profit lags. The two to three analysts covering EBITDA expect losses of around $9 million to $10 million a quarter through Q3 2027.
Upside comes if Claros adds a third revenue stream from 2028. Downside comes if the 2027 stages slip and more share sales dilute the return.
Conclusion
Navitas scheduled a Claros technology webinar for October 20, but November 3 carries the numbers.
- Sellers’ case: Revenue near the $13.0 million low end, or a Q4 guide well under $15 million, would mean the stages are arriving slower than he described.
- Buyers’ case: Q3 revenue at or above $13.5 million and a Q4 guide near $15.10 million would extend the streak Allexandre asked for.
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So what is Navitas stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
