Key Stats for D-Wave Stock
- Current Price: $11.83
- Street Target (Mean): ~$35
- Q4 2026 Revenue Consensus: ~$32 million
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What Happened?
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) closed at $11.83 on October 19, 2026, down from $26.15 at the end of 2025. Management has said the fourth quarter will deliver “the majority of the year’s total revenue,” and analysts expect about $32 million of it, roughly three-quarters of their ~$42 million full-year 2026 estimate.
The number that decides where shares go next sits in D-Wave’s investor relations materials and Wall Street’s models. Analysts expect about $32 million of revenue in the fourth quarter alone, more than five times the $5.94 million D-Wave recognized in the first half.
A Lawsuit Lands on a Shaky Sector
The complaint, filed October 15 in federal court in Northern California, covers buyers from February 26 to August 25, 2026. It alleges the company overstated its business and financial prospects. The allegations are unproven. It cites two drops:
- August 6: down 9.28%, when Q2 revenue of $3.08 million missed the $4.03 million consensus.
- August 26: down 9.51%, the session after D-Wave announced CFO John Markovich’s retirement.
The group was already fragile. IonQ (IONQ) priced a $2 billion equity offering on October 14, days after agreeing to an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3 billion. D-Wave and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) each slid about 4% in intraday trading. On October 13, D-Wave extended its chip-manufacturing agreement with SkyWater, which IonQ has owned since July 31.
Dilution is the fear, and D-Wave has the cushion to delay it:
- Consensus implies roughly $290 million of free cash flow burn from July 2026 through 2028.
- It held $546.2 million in cash and marketable securities at June 30.
- It sold no shares through at-the-market offerings in the first half of 2026, after selling about 51 million in the first half of 2025.
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The Q4 Estimate Runs Ahead of Management’s Guide
On the August 6 call, Markovich said both annealing systems would likely ship in the fourth quarter. He guided Q4 revenue “up significantly over the third quarter revenue and comprising the majority of the year’s total revenue.”
That guide clears a low bar. With Q1 at $2.86 million, Q2 at $3.08 million and Q3 expected “up modestly,” a fourth quarter near $10 million would already be a majority. Consensus sits at $32.17 million. The full-year 2026 estimate has barely moved since June 30, from $42.57 million to $42.47 million.
The timing math is tight:
- Revenue recognition: management said system revenue is recognized over about two quarters once a site is ready.
- Carryover: some installation revenue will carry into 2027.
- Pricing: systems sell for $20 million to $40 million.
- Backlog: about 57% of the $40.7 million backlog converts within 12 months, roughly $23 million. Consensus for July 2026 through June 2027 adds up to about $65 million. The backlog excludes renewals, but the gap still leans on new deals.
D-Wave announced on October 15 that an Advantage2 system had arrived in Como, Italy. It sits under a €10 million deal giving Swiss Quantum Technology 50% of its capacity for five years, plus an option to buy it. The company has not said how much of it lands in Q4.
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What the Street Is Paying For
Ratings have barely moved: 14 Buys, 1 Outperform, 2 Holds, and no Sells. Holds did double from one at June 30, and the mean target slipped to $34.65 from $38.50 at the end of 2025.
Production applications generated more than 37% of first-half QCaaS revenue, up from 9.8% a year earlier. “We are not asking the market to evaluate D-Wave solely on a distant promise,” CEO Alan Baratz said. Yet he does not expect significant gate-model cloud revenue until “the 2032 time frame.”
As of October 16, D-Wave traded at 59.75 times NTM EV-to-revenue. That was near Xanadu Quantum Technologies (XNDU) at 58.05 times and below BTQ Technologies (BTQ) at 135.80 times. Consensus keeps D-Wave’s free cash flow negative through 2030.
Street Estimates
- Current Price: $11.83
- Street Target (Mean): ~$35
- Street Target (Median): ~$36
- Street Target Range: ~18to~43
- FY2026 Revenue Consensus: ~$42 million
- FY2027 Revenue Consensus: ~$81 million
- FY2028 Revenue Consensus: ~$148 million
- Free Cash Flow Consensus: negative through FY2030
Even the low target, $18.36, sits about 55% above the October 19 close. A Q4 reset would test analysts’ conviction, not just the stock.
D-Wave’s Q3 report, expected in early November, is its first since Markovich left on September 2. Watch two things:
- Whether management still sees both systems shipping in Q4.
- Whether the 17-qubit dual-rail system, which Baratz said was on track for year-end, is delivered.
A Q4 near $10 million would meet the company’s guide yet miss consensus by about two-thirds.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
