Key Stats for Merck Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -2%
- 52-week Range: $73 to $113
- Valuation Model Target Price: $139
- Implied Upside: 29% over 1.9 years
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What Happened?
Merck & Co. stock slipped about 2% over the past week, trading lower across several sessions and finishing near $108. Shares briefly dipped toward $106 midweek before stabilizing, as near-term selling pressure outweighed buying interest.
The pullback reflected a period of consolidation following recent gains, with investor focus shifting toward upcoming earnings and pipeline updates.
As positioning adjusted and short-term momentum eased, the stock traded lower through much of the week.
At the same time, analyst activity remained supportive. Goldman Sachs raised its price target from $92 to $120, UBS Group increased its target from $105 to $130, and Bank of America lifted its price objective from $105 to $120, all maintaining buy ratings.
The target increases reinforced confidence in Merck’s earnings durability and pipeline strength, even as the stock moved lower on a weekly basis.
Overall, last week’s decline reflected short-term repositioning rather than a shift in Merck’s underlying fundamentals, keeping shares anchored near the broader analyst consensus around $114.
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Is Merck Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 3.5%
- Operating Margins: 38.8%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 13.9x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $139, implying 29% total upside from recent levels over the next 1.9 years.
Over the next year, results are likely shaped by Merck’s ability to sustain oncology volume growth as Keytruda matures, supported by earlier-line adoption and contributions from newer products such as Winrevair, alongside continued Gardasil expansion in international markets.
Pipeline execution remains central, particularly progress across cardiopulmonary and oncology programs where clinical data, regulatory milestones, and early commercial traction can directly influence earnings expectations.
Margin strength also stays in focus, as a favorable mix toward higher-margin specialty therapies and disciplined cost control support strong cash generation even as research spending remains elevated.
Merck appears undervalued at current levels, with future performance driven by visible pipeline delivery, durable oncology demand, and steady margin resilience rather than a near-term valuation reset.
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