Key Stats for Marvell Stock
- Current Price: $245.11
- Target Price (Mid): ~$730
- Street Target: ~$270
- Potential Total Return: ~196%
- Annualized IRR: ~28% / year
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What Happened?
For a decade, the custom silicon around Google’s Tensor Processing Units ran mainly through Broadcom. On August 19, Marvell Technology (MRVL) showed that is no longer a one-supplier story, and the stock closed up about 8% while Broadcom slipped. Marvell disclosed an expanded agreement to co-design custom chips across Google’s TPU ecosystem, and it structured the deal in a way that signals how confident both sides are. Google did not pay cash. It received a warrant on 58,970,907 Marvell shares at $206.58, worth roughly $12.2 billion if fully exercised, that vests in slices only as Google actually buys chips.
The stock has climbed nearly 190% this year, trades at a steep premium to every peer, and on August 27, it reported a fiscal second quarter that beat on revenue and lifted guidance, yet the stock fell about 3%. Anyone buying here is paying up for a company that just won custom-chip work Google had run mainly through Broadcom, and whose good quarter still couldn’t move the stock.
The Warrant Is a Bet on Volume, Not a Gift
One block of shares unlocks for roughly every $500 million in custom-chip revenue Marvell books from Google, running through fiscal 2033, and exercising the full warrant would take something on the order of $120 billion in cumulative purchases. Fully exercised, the position would make Google Marvell’s fifth-largest shareholder. Google’s equity upside and Marvell’s revenue upside are welded together: the stake only grows if the orders show up.
Google still co-designs the TPU compute die itself with Broadcom, so Marvell is attaching around it: AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, network interface controllers, memory-interface controllers, and near-memory compute. That maps onto what CEO Matt Murphy calls “XPU attach,” the custom components that surround an accelerator. Speaking at the Six Five Summit on August 25, Murphy said the company now has “15 or 18 different designs across all 4 big hyperscalers plus others of these XPU attached products, which can get up into the $500 to $2,000 content level per accelerator.” Winning Google’s attach business is that strategy landing on the largest possible customer, which is why the reaction ran well beyond a single contract.
As AI inference scales, the bottleneck shifts from raw compute to how fast data moves between memory and the processor, and putting logic next to the memory attacks that directly. Murphy framed that layer as the next phase to unlock: “You still haven’t seen mass deployments of GPUs and AI accelerators scaled up. You haven’t seen it. This is all in front of us.”
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A Premium the CEO Himself Won’t Guarantee
Marvell trades at around 43x forward EV/EBITDA and around 53x forward earnings. Per TIKR’s Competitors data, NVIDIA sits near 15x and Broadcom near 18x on the same forward EBITDA basis, with AMD around 36x. Paying more than double NVIDIA’s and Broadcom’s multiple for a company that Marvell both supplies and competes with only works if it grows into the gap.
TIKR data shows revenue growing from about $8.2 billion in fiscal 2026 toward around $11.6 billion in fiscal 2027 and around $16.9 billion in fiscal 2028, a forward two-year revenue CAGR near 44%, among the fastest in large-cap semiconductors. The Street is largely aligned: TIKR’s data shows 31 buy and 7 outperform ratings against 6 holds and a single sell. But the ceiling on that story comes from Murphy himself. Asked about custom silicon taking over, he was blunt: “the notion that custom is going to take over all of the market, I’ve been not of that opinion consistently for a long time. It will coexist. It will be a part of the market.” The bull case rests on Marvell winning a widening share of hyperscaler attach content, not on custom silicon swallowing the industry, and the drawdown history shows how fast sentiment turns: shares fell more than 48% from peak to trough this summer before recovering toward $245.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $245.11
- Target Price (Mid): ~$730
- Potential Total Return: ~196%
- Annualized IRR: ~28% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case values Marvell at around $730, a potential total return near 196% over roughly the next four years, or about 28% annualized. Two revenue drivers carry it: custom AI silicon, now anchored by the Google TPU attach win alongside the Amazon Trainium and Microsoft Maia programs, and the connectivity franchise spanning optical interconnects and switching. The margin driver is operating leverage, with net income margins modeled around 32% as revenue scales faster than headcount, up from about 30% in fiscal 2026. The primary risk is customer concentration stacked on the multiple: a single hyperscaler pushing out a program would hit the growth rate and the premium at once.
- Upside: custom silicon and connectivity compound near the ~34% revenue CAGR the mid-case assumes, the multiple holds, and the model’s near-tripling plays out.
- Downside: AI spending cools or a key program slips, the premium compresses toward peers, and a buyer at $245 waits years for the fundamentals to grow into the price.
Conclusion
The quarter answered the question a preview would have asked, and the answer was awkward for the bulls. Marvell beat and lifted its guidance, the setup that should confirm the thesis, and the stock fell anyway. That reaction is the signal. At roughly 53x forward earnings, a good quarter is already the price of admission, and it now takes a great one to move the stock. The next real test is whether the Google ramp turns into reported revenue when Marvell posts its next quarter in early December.
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Should You Invest in Marvell?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
