Key Stats for Home Depot Stock
- Current Price: $334.85
- Target Price (Mid): ~$500
- Street Target: ~$378
- Potential Total Return: ~50%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
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What Happened?
The Home Depot (HD) did the hard part on August 18. It beat on revenue, beat on earnings, held its full-year guidance, and grew comparable sales several times faster than its only scaled competitor. The stock rose about 2% on the print and touched roughly $344 the next session. By the August 26 close, it was back at $334.85, having handed the entire post-earnings pop back to the market.
A retailer this size does not usually beat, reaffirm, and fade unless the market has already decided the fundamentals do not matter until housing thaws.
Home Depot Is Winning Its Category While the Category Sits Frozen
Sales rose 5.7% to $47.9 billion. Comparable sales grew 1.7%, U.S. comps grew 1.3%, and 13 of 16 merchandising departments posted positive comps. Adjusted earnings per share reached $4.92, up 5.1% from a year earlier, and online sales grew 11%, the fifth straight quarter of double-digit growth.
Put that next to Lowe’s, which reported the same week and comped just 0.2%, with comparable transactions down 2.1%. Both companies operate in identical conditions, so a comp gap this wide is not the share. A positive Pro comp that outran DIY, plus strength at SRS, the roofing and building-products distributor, did most of the work, while big discretionary projects stayed under pressure.
Existing-home sales ran at just 3.1% of U.S. households in June, according to First American, versus a 1991-to-2019 average near 4.5%. When people do not move, they do not gut kitchens, and that is exactly the demand that stayed weak. CFO Richard McPhail framed the coiled spring directly on the call: housing turnover “has never been lower as a percentage of the housing stock,” and every prior time it hit roughly 3% of homes changing hands, “it’s always bounced up relatively quickly.” His point matters because Home Depot is taking share now, before that normalization.
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What Investors Pay for the Better Operator
At $334.85, it trades at about 21.7 times next-twelve-month earnings, a clear premium to Lowe’s near 17 times. The debate is whether the better operator is worth the premium. HD just grew comps eight times faster than Lowe’s, runs a larger Pro and specialty-distribution business through SRS and GMS, and pays a 2.9% dividend. It also reaffirmed a full-year guide of flat-to-2% comps and roughly 12.8% to 13% adjusted operating margin, a guide that already builds in the tariff-refund offset to this year’s cost inflation.
CEO Ted Decker is on temporary medical leave, announced August 12, with Ann-Marie Campbell overseeing day-to-day operations and McPhail running financial management and the Pro subsidiaries. An interim team has a structural reason to hold guidance rather than revise it, so the reaffirmation is a steadying signal.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $334.85
- Target Price (Mid): ~$500
- Potential Total Return: ~50%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Home Depot stock (It’s free!) >>>
The two revenue drivers behind that number are steady mid-single-digit organic growth in the core store base and the Pro and specialty-distribution build-out through SRS and GMS. The margin driver is the fade of the GMS acquisition mix drag through the back half, which lets reported margins drift back toward the segment’s natural earnings power. The primary risk is blunt: if housing turnover stays frozen longer than the model assumes, the big-ticket recovery never arrives, and the premium multiple stays capped.
The upside case is that Home Depot compounds mid-single-digit revenue and high-single-digit earnings while the multiple holds, and the model implies a double-digit annualized return without any re-rating. The downside case is a prolonged freeze that keeps comps near flat and leaves the stock waiting another year for a catalyst that does not come.
Conclusion
The number that settles this is the back-half comp. Home Depot guided the full year to flat-to-2% growth and just printed 1.7% against easier comparisons ahead. Watch the Q3 report in November: a U.S. comp holding near or above the 1.3% pace keeps the full-year path and the model’s revenue assumption intact, while a slide back toward flat says the frozen market is winning and the premium is hard to defend. One quarter does not prove the consumer is re-engaging, but the November print will show which way the trend bends.
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Should You Invest in Home Depot?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Home Depot, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Home Depot alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
