Key Stats for Lockheed Martin Stock
- Price change for Lockheed Martin stock in the last 6 months: -20%
- $LMT Stock Price as of Sep. 8: $536
- 52-Week High: $692
- $LMT Stock Price Target: $638
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What Happened?
Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock got a vote of confidence today after UBS upgraded the defense giant from Neutral to Buy.
The bank also raised its 12-month price target from $581 to $674, which points to about 26% upside from where shares were trading on September 8.
UBS says the market is underestimating how strong and how long-lasting Lockheed’s earnings growth could be.
The bank expects revenue to grow at a 9% annual rate through 2028, faster than most analysts currently project, and it also sees earnings per share coming in well above consensus by that same year.
The biggest driver behind this call is Lockheed’s Missiles and Fire Control division, known as MFC. UBS expects production of key missile systems like PAC-3, THAAD, PrSM, and JASSM/LRASM to ramp up significantly.
Specifically, the bank projects MFC revenue jumping from $14.5 billion in 2025 to $35.7 billion by 2030. That’s more than 20% annual growth for half a decade straight.
Big multiyear contracts are backing up this optimism. UBS pointed to a $35 billion THAAD award and a nearly $60 billion PAC-3 framework agreement as evidence that Lockheed has real visibility into years of future production.
The company’s book-to-bill ratio, a measure of new orders compared to what’s being delivered, hit 3.2 times in the most recent quarter. For context, that ratio was just 1.2 times back in 2025.
UBS doesn’t see this as a short-term defense spending bump either.
The bank argues that recent global conflicts have drained stockpiles of advanced missiles, and governments worldwide are now rethinking how much they need to keep in reserve.
UBS estimates missile production could be roughly four times higher in 2035 compared to 2025.
The F-35 fighter jet program adds another layer of steady growth. While new aircraft production should stay fairly flat, UBS expects sustainment revenue, meaning the money spent keeping existing jets running and combat-ready, to climb from $5.1 billion in 2025 to $8.8 billion by 2030.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Lockheed Martin Stock
UBS also flagged other programs like the CH-53K helicopter and the Trident missile system as additional growth drivers that diversify Lockheed’s business beyond just missiles and fighter jets.
Trident’s budget alone could reach $5.2 billion in fiscal 2027.
On the financial side, UBS expects capital spending to rise to 3.2% of revenue in 2027, the highest level in more than ten years, as Lockheed builds out missile production capacity.
Even with that spending increase, free cash flow per share is expected to grow about 50% by 2030.
Put together, this upgrade reflects growing confidence that Lockheed Martin stock has room to run as defense budgets shift toward rebuilding missile stockpiles and modernizing existing fleets, a trend UBS believes will support Lockheed Martin stock well into the next decade.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
