Key Takeaways
- IonQ stock fell 24% in the past month (through Friday’s close) after it agreed to buy Elisity with up to $1.3 billion in stock and then sold $2 billion of new shares.
- D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing fell even further over the same month with no stock deals of their own, so a selloff across quantum stocks did much of the damage.
- The deals could grow IonQ’s share count by close to half, but the $2 billion pays for close to three years of the losses analysts expect.
- At under 20x forward sales, near a five-year low, IonQ looks like a buy for patient holders, and the third-quarter report on Nov. 5 is the next test.
IonQ (IONQ) is down 24% in the past month (through the recent close). In three days, it agreed to issue up to $3.3 billion of new stock. Meanwhile, the quantum trade cracked: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) fell 34% and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) fell 31%.
So is this a reason to sell, or a chance to load up?
Two stock deals in three days
On Oct. 12, IonQ agreed to buy cybersecurity company Elisity in an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3 billion. Chairman and CEO Niccolo de Masi’s reason: “Q-Day is coming much faster than predicted.” (That’s the day quantum computers can crack today’s encryption.)
Two days later, IonQ priced a $2 billion stock sale to Heights Capital Management at $40 a share. Heights also got warrants for 100 million more shares at $69.46.
Together, the deals could grow IonQ’s 397 million shares by close to half. And the share count had already doubled from 2021 to 2025.
At the $740 million burn analysts expect for 2027, the $2 billion lasts close to three years.
The whole quantum group sold off
But the deals don’t explain the whole drop. D-Wave and Rigetti fell further with no stock deals, as a tech selloff over interest-rate worries hit speculative stocks from Oct. 16 on. That was also the day a new class action against D-Wave went public.
The selloff also drowned out good news: three new orders for IonQ’s Superion 256 system and a Buy initiation from Bank of America.
TIKR tracks 14 analysts on IonQ. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IonQ, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IonQ’s Analyst Ratings
Is IonQ a buy at under 20x sales?
IonQ trades below 20x forward sales, near a five-year low and far below its 128x average…
But that average comes from years when sales were tiny. More of IonQ’s revenue now comes from the SkyWater foundry, which Bank of America valued at just 2x sales.
The $64 consensus target is about double the price, and it’s roughly where it was a year ago, while the stock nearly halved.
On Oct. 15, Rosenblatt lowered its target to $70 from $100 and kept its Buy. Morgan Stanley is warier, at Equal Weight with its target cut to $43 from $49.
Wider losses are the catch: the 2027 loss estimate rose to $3.40 a share from $2.36 in 90 days.
My take: At under 20x sales, with nearly three years of losses paid for, I wouldn’t sell here. Patient holders can load up, if a much bigger share count doesn’t bother them.
The third-quarter report on Nov. 5, IonQ’s first with SkyWater, could change that. Watch the $450 million to $460 million 2026 revenue outlook and any update on the Elisity deal, set to close this quarter.
So what is IonQ stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what IonQ could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
