Key Stats for IonQ Stock
- Current Price: $45.48
- Target Price (Mid): ~$133
- Street Target: ~$67
- Potential Total Return: ~193%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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What Happened?
IonQ (IONQ) announced three Superion 256 placements between September 21 and September 24: a supply agreement with South Korea’s SDT, a planned research installation at NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Accelerated Quantum Research Center, and a contract with Florida International University. None of the three releases disclosed a dollar value.
Shares closed at $45.48 on September 25, just 1.4% above the 2025 close of $44.87, after swinging from $28.83 at the end of March to $53.26 at the end of June. Since December 31, IonQ’s forward enterprise value to revenue multiple has fallen from about 85 times to 23 times. The announcements do not change the timing: IonQ’s investor relations materials put the first Superion customer deliveries in 2027.
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Three Placements, No Prices, First Deliveries in 2027
Announcing the SDT deal on September 21, Chairman and CEO Niccolo de Masi said demand for the new Superion 256 system “is growing globally.” SDT’s release gave no delivery date, while NVIDIA’s installation is scheduled for 2027 and FIU’s for late 2027, after the university completes an on-campus data center.
On September 22, IonQ said a real-time error-correction decoder ran on a single standard CPU in tests on simulated circuits. Quantum stocks jumped premarket on September 23, but most gave back those gains after the open; IonQ faded too, touching $46.02 intraday before closing at $42.54, up 4.42%. By September 25, shares stood 11.6% above the $40.74 close of September 22, with peers moving in sympathy along the way.
At IonQ’s September 8 Investor Day, Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh asked about Superion 256 pricing. CFO and COO Inder Singh said IonQ must decide over the next few years “how much of that margin we’re going to keep and share with our customers.” De Masi added that IonQ aims for “total cost of ownership advantage for the customer and then margin expansion for us,” then closed with “Did I successfully dodge that pricing question?”
Margins Were Thinning Before the Foundry Arrived
IonQ’s gross margin was 42.1% in 2025 ($54.69 million of gross profit on $130.02 million of revenue). It fell to 30.2% over the twelve months through June 30 (74.42 million on $246.47 million), before any SkyWater results were consolidated. SkyWater, consolidated from July 31, adds a foundry business whose margins IonQ has yet to report.
The multiple’s collapse is mostly arithmetic. IonQ’s next-twelve-month revenue estimate climbed to around $687 million from around $176 million at the end of 2025, with about 80% of that increase arriving after June 30 as analysts added the foundry. Enterprise value rose 7.8% over the same stretch, to $16.02 billion.
IonQ beat revenue estimates in each of its last five quarters, but its adjusted EBITDA loss ran 21.13% wider than expected in Q1 2026 and 48.18% wider in Q2. Analysts see EBITDA losses widening to about $483 million in 2027 before narrowing to about $141 million by 2030. At 23 times forward revenue, IonQ trades closer to Intel (INTC) at about 10 times than to Rigetti Computing (RGTI) at about 179 times.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $45.48
- Target Price (Mid): ~$133
- Potential Total Return: ~193%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case, used here as the central scenario, points to around $133 by December 31, 2030, a total return near 193%, or about 29% a year. Its assumptions, which run through 2035, compound revenue around 53% a year, hold a normalized net loss margin near 54%, and keep today’s negative P/E flat. The target, therefore, reflects how the market prices IonQ’s losses, not a profit forecast.
Analysts are more optimistic on margins, with normalized losses narrowing to about 10% of revenue by 2030. Upside comes if Superion pricing lifts gross margin toward analysts’ 50% estimate for 2030. The downside comes if deliveries slip past 2027 while losses keep widening.
Conclusion
Two disclosures will test whether 23 times forward revenue is a discount: the first Superion price or Superion-specific backlog figure, and IonQ’s third-quarter report, expected in early November, and the first to include SkyWater. Singh said fuller EBITDA details would come once auditors finish. Revenue near the roughly $142 million consensus, with an adjusted EBITDA loss near $124 million, would show the combined company absorbing the foundry, while a loss well past that mark keeps the margin question open.
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Should You Invest in IonQ?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
