Key Stats for IonQ Stock
- Current Price: $44.58
- Target Price (Mid): ~$133
- Street Target: ~$67
- Potential Total Return: ~199%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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What Happened?
IonQ (IONQ) opened at $46.31 on September 28, the day Bank of America’s Vivek Arya started coverage with a Buy rating and a $60 target. It closed at $44.58, down 1.98%. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) fell 4.3% in the same session, a sign that the selling reached beyond IonQ.
BofA’s case rests on IonQ’s chip-based path to scaling qubits. Its $60 target, below the Street mean of around $67, values that business in two very different pieces. IonQ’s own reporting, outlined in its investor relations materials, shows why the mix matters more than the rating.
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BofA Pays 7 Times for Quantum Sales and 2 Times for the Foundry
BofA applies 7 times enterprise value to sales to an estimated $2.5 billion of 2030 quantum hardware and services revenue. It applies 2 times to $1.2 billion of foundry revenue, for a blended multiple of about 5 times. BofA projects a 69% compound annual growth rate from 2026 to 2030 and says IonQ has “multiple ways to win.” It also flags delivery delays or slow adoption as risks to that forecast.
At those multiples, a dollar of foundry sales is worth less than a third of a dollar of quantum sales. The combined $3.7 billion is about 8 times IonQ’s 2026 guidance midpoint and nearly double TIKR’s three-analyst FY2030 consensus of around $1.95 billion. That consensus still shows EBITDA losses in every year through 2030. Mizuho cut its target to $52 from $61 after the September 8 Investor Day while keeping an Outperform rating.
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IonQ’s Own Categories Split the Foundry in Two
At the September 8 Investor Day, CFO and COO Inder Singh grouped revenue into quantum hardware and quantum services, plus two SkyWater lines. The first is a CMOS semiconductor foundry, “principally the Texas foundry.” The second is quantum foundry and advanced technologies. Cloud access to IonQ machines, he said, is “actually growing faster than the computing business even and is even more profitable than many of the things we do.”
The two foundry lines work differently. Singh said IonQ has “not had to go into the Texas fab to do quantum.” SkyWater CEO Thomas Sonderman said the fab now serves nine quantum customers, a count that includes Qolab. Public summaries of BofA’s note do not say where the quantum foundry work sits. If it falls in the 2 times line, that multiple may understate the piece selling to rival quantum companies. Singh added that IonQ will not break out “this level of granularity” on earnings calls.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $44.58
- Target Price (Mid): ~$133
- Potential Total Return: ~199%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case is the case its summary card reports for the December 31, 2030, horizon. It points to around $133, a total return near 199%, or about 29% a year from $44.58. It assumes revenue compounds around 53% a year from 2025 through 2035, with IonQ still losing money at the end of that stretch. BofA’s $60 uses a different method and horizon, so the two figures are not a like-for-like disagreement. Upside comes if the quantum lines outgrow the foundry and pull the blended multiple toward 7 times. The downside comes if conventional CMOS work drives growth and pulls it toward 2 times.
Conclusion
IonQ’s third-quarter report, expected in early November, will be the first to include SkyWater for about two of the quarter’s three months. The line to watch is whether IonQ reports quantum foundry revenue separately from the Texas CMOS fab. A distinct, faster-growing quantum foundry line would argue that part of BofA’s 2 times is too low. A single blended SkyWater figure would give the market no basis to pay more.
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Should You Invest in IonQ?
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Pull up IonQ, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
