Key Stats for Boeing Stock
- Current Price: $184.39
- Year-to-Date Change: -15.1%
- Street Target: ~$273
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What Happened?
Boeing (BA) fell 6.91% on September 28 to close at $184.39, far steeper than the Dow’s 0.67% slide. Shares were already lower on weekend reports of a 737 MAX software glitch and extended losses after FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the agency will delay MAX 10 certification until it is satisfied the glitch is not an issue.
Bedford said the FAA has not concluded whether it is a safety-of-flight issue, and Boeing says existing pilot procedures cover the scenario while it builds a permanent fix. The higher cost may be cash: at a Morgan Stanley conference on September 16, recorded in Boeing’s investor relations materials, CFO Jay Malave tied the release of stored-jet inventory to certification.
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Stored Jets Tie the MAX 10 Delay to 2027 Cash
Boeing has prebuilt MAX 7s, which won FAA approval in August, and is building MAX 10s. Malave said those jets will start delivering upon the certifications “really next year and probably over an 18-month period,” and “then we’ll see the inventory drawdown related to that.”
He agreed with Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag that the broader working capital release could reach a few billion dollars once production rates stabilize, adding “there’s a tail to it.” That puts most of the risk on 2027: Boeing already planned MAX 7 and MAX 10 deliveries to start in 2027, and Malave described the 2026 free cash flow outlook as “stable, steady around that $2 billion midpoint.”
Even 2026 is not fully insulated, since United is not accepting deliveries of jets carrying the affected software version. Bedford, who identified GE Aerospace (GE) as the software supplier, said a fix could come relatively quickly but could not say whether that means days, weeks, or months. Customers are still writing the variant into contracts: Turkish Airlines’ (THYAO) September 23 order for 100 737-8s includes 737-10 substitution rights.
Malave Hasn’t Signed Off on the Street’s 2027 Number
TIKR consensus puts free cash flow at around $2.3 billion in 2026, around $6.0 billion in 2027, and around $9.8 billion in 2028, after a negative $1.877 billion in 2025. Asked about a $6.2 billion 2027 consensus figure that Liwag cited, Malave said he expects cash flow to grow but is “kind of thinking it’s still a transitionary period” as pricing penalties and excess advances burn off.
Boeing’s free cash flow has beaten the Street’s estimate in each of the last five reported quarters, though Malave said first-half 2026 cash came in better than expected on favorable receipt timing within the year. Adjusted EPS missed in two of those five quarters.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $184.39
- Revenue Growth: ~8%
- Net Income Margin: ~5%
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The TIKR model’s mid case assumes revenue grows around 8% a year through 2035 with a net margin of around 5%. That pace depends on the 737 MAX moving from 47 jets a month toward 52 and the 787 from 8 toward 10, a step Ortberg tied to an engine recovery plan with GE. The margin swing sits in commercial airplanes, which posted a $7.079 billion operating loss in 2025.
Boeing’s $145.74 billion market value is about 15 times 2028 consensus free cash flow, and that figure sits close to the $10 billion run-rate framework from its last investor day. Malave said he thinks that framework “on a run rate basis is definitely pretty much intact” but did not tie it to a year. On NTM EV/EBITDA, Boeing trades around 30x against around 13x for Airbus (AIR), so the price already assumes the recovery.
A quick MAX 10 approval keeps the 18-month delivery window opening in 2027. A review that drags deep into 2027, or a strike after SPEEA’s contract expires on October 6, pushes that cash later. Ortberg said a strike means “essentially the 777 certification program shuts down until we get the engineers back,” though both SPEEA bargaining councils recommended a yes vote.
Conclusion
Boeing is expected to report third-quarter results in late October. In July, Malave guided third-quarter free cash flow to be positive and in the low hundreds of millions of dollars after a $700 million DOJ payment. A positive print with a firm MAX 10 timeline supports the 2027 ramp, while a negative print or a MAX 10 delivery start pushed deep into 2027 puts the roughly $6 billion 2027 estimate at risk.
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Should You Invest in Boeing?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
