Key Stats for ExxonMobil Stock
- Current Price: $162.52
- Target Price (Mid): ~$165
- Street Target: ~$172
- Potential Total Return: ~2%
- Annualized IRR: ~0.4% / year
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What Happened?
ExxonMobil (XOM) rose 1.20% to $162.52 on Sept. 28 as Brent rebounded and TD Cowen raised its price target to $180 from $168, keeping a Buy rating and forecasting a third-quarter beat on strong refining. A day earlier, President Donald Trump said of a U.S. diesel export ban, “we’re looking at it very seriously,” adding, “we may do it.”
Both headlines land on the same business. Refining earned more in the second quarter alone than in the first half of 2025, and industry groups warn a ban would force U.S. refiners to cut runs.
TD Cowen Is Betting the Refining Surge Keeps Building
On an adjusted basis, Energy Products earned $4.1 billion in the second quarter, about 1.8 times its $2.2 billion for the first half of 2025, helped by record second-quarter diesel production. TD Cowen’s Jason Gabelman estimates the segment’s earnings will rise another $4.6 billion in the third quarter. He also noted XOM has underperformed during the conflict because of its outsized exposure to disrupted volumes.
CFO Neil Hansen described the same split at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference on Sept. 9. He said, “for the most part, the oil markets have settled into a fairly range-bound price scenario.” Refining was different: “On the refining side, we would tell you that’s where the pinch point is today.”
The Sept. 28 session fit. Brent jumped more than $4 early after Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz proposal, then faded as Qatari mediators prepared talks, settling up about 1% near $105. XOM moved roughly in step.
TIKR shows consensus 2026 revenue near $415 billion, up from about $323 billion at the end of 2025, as analysts chased the surge.
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Trump’s Diesel Export Talk Targets the Segment TD Cowen Is Counting On
On Sept. 22, Trump said he had “called for” a ban, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was examining whether a full or partial ban was feasible. The next day, more than 30 business and energy groups urged him to reject it, warning refineries would have to throttle utilization. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has opposed a ban.
On Sept. 27, Trump acknowledged a ban could raise gasoline prices, while aides weighed options short of one, including voluntary export limits. A White House official said on Sept. 28 that no policy decision had been made. This is a proposal under review.
Independent refiners such as Valero (VLO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Phillips 66 (PSX) carry the most direct exposure. Hansen’s argument for Exxon’s integrated model is that “just being in a position along that value chain allows you to capture the value as it shifts.”
The Market Already Pays Less for Each Dollar of 2026 Earnings
Refining profits reverse fast. Per TIKR, full-year Energy Products net income fell from $14.97 billion in 2022 to $4.03 billion in 2024, then recovered to $7.42 billion in 2025.
Consensus EPS shows the same shape ahead. TIKR’s normalized estimates jump to about $12 in 2026 from $6.99 in 2025, then ease to about $10 by 2028. As next-twelve-month EPS rose from about $7 to about $12, XOM’s forward P/E ratio fell from about 17 at the end of 2025 to about 13, even with the stock up 35% in 2026.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $162.52
- Target Price (Mid): ~$165
- Potential Total Return: ~2%
- Annualized IRR: ~0.4% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case targets around $165 by Dec. 31, 2030, about a 2% total return from $162.52, or around 0.4% a year. The margin driver is refining, and the primary risk is an export limit that cuts refinery runs.
Exxon and its partners also marked the Stabroek block’s 1 billionth gross barrel on Sept. 28, though TD Cowen expects Guyana’s move to profit oil to trim third-quarter production.
Upside needs refining strength to outlast 2026, the path behind TD Cowen’s $180, which sits above the Street mean of about $172. Analysts split 7 Buys, 3 Outperforms, 15 Holds, 0 Underperforms, and 1 Sell, per TIKR. The downside is the consensus path to lower normalized earnings by 2028.
Conclusion
Washington decides first. Trump said on Sept. 22 the call would come “fast, one way or the other,” so it could land before third-quarter results in late October. A sequential Energy Products gain near TD Cowen’s $4.6 billion estimate would back the refining bet, while a ban, a voluntary export cap, or a flat quarter would point back to the model’s thin return.
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Should You Invest in ExxonMobil?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
