Nucor Stock: Estimates Bake In a 60% Earnings Rebound, But Q3 Guidance Just Missed

Key Takeaways

• Nucor guided third-quarter earnings to $5.55 to $5.65 per share on September 17, below the $6.17 consensus estimate, after beating adjusted EPS estimates in four of the last five quarters.
• Part of the gap is a one-time $130 million raw materials refund in the second quarter, and both steel mills and steel products are still expected to earn more.
• Wall Street’s mean target of around $284 implies roughly 16% upside, and JPMorgan raised its own target to $308 a week before the guidance.
• Third-quarter results on October 26 are the next chance to see whether the miss is a reset or the start of a pattern.

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A Beat Streak About to Face Its Toughest Test

Nucor (NUE) has beaten Wall Street’s numbers more often than not over the past year, and that track record is exactly what makes its latest guidance worth paying attention to.

Adjusted EPS came in ahead of estimates in four of the last five quarters, including beats of 21% and 15% in two of those periods, with only one real miss along the way: a 4% shortfall in the quarter ended December 2025. The chart below lays out that pattern in full.

Nucor guided third-quarter 2026 earnings to a range of $5.55 to $5.65 per diluted share on September 17, below the $6.17 consensus estimate cited by MarketBeat at the time.

Management pointed to higher average selling prices and stable volumes lifting the steel mills segment, and higher volumes and pricing helping steel products, but a decline in raw materials earnings and higher corporate expenses are expected to weigh on the total.

Some of that gap also reflects a one-time item: the second quarter included a $130 million cash refund tied to prior raw material costs that will not repeat. Context matters here too.

Nucor’s second quarter results were genuinely strong, with GAAP diluted EPS of $5.04 versus $2.60 a year earlier, and first quarter net earnings had already climbed to $743 million from just $156 million a year prior, so a step down from that pace was always likely.

The real question is whether this guidance breaks the recent beat streak or simply resets expectations to a more sustainable run rate.

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Wall Street Keeps Raising the Bar

Wall Street has kept raising its targets through it all. The mean price target has climbed from around $148 in mid 2025 to roughly $284 today, tracking the stock’s own run from the high $130s to the mid-$240s over the same period, as shown in the chart below.

Coverage currently includes 10 buy ratings, 3 outperforms, and 4 holds against just a single sell, and the high target among all estimates now sits at $310. JPMorgan raised its own target to $308 from $294 on September 9, only a week before the guidance came in light.

This combination, rising targets alongside a near term miss, suggests analysts see the guidance softness as temporary rather than a sign the broader steel cycle recovery is stalling.

The mean target still implies meaningful upside from where the stock trades today, even after a run that has already taken shares well off their 52-week low.

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Should You Buy Nucor Stock?

The bull case rests on a steel cycle that is genuinely improving, with steel mills and steel products both expected to grow even as guidance came in below consensus for the quarter ahead.

Nucor has also returned over a billion dollars to shareholders this year through buybacks and dividends, supporting per-share results even when segment performance is uneven, and forward estimates still call for earnings growth well above 50% over the next two years.

The bear case is that the beat streak just broke, and raw materials weakness combined with rising corporate costs could persist longer than a single quarter.

With the stock already up sharply from its 52-week low and trading at a premium to where it sat a year ago, a repeated pattern of light guidance would give Wall Street a real reason to reconsider just how much of the recovery is already priced in.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!