Key Stats for Qualcomm Stock
- Current Price: $187.48
- Target Price (Mid): ~$388
- Street Target: ~$194
- Potential Total Return: ~107%
- Annualized IRR: ~20% / year
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What Happened?
Qualcomm (QCOM) closed at $187.48 on September 28, down 7.17% from $201.97, while the QQQ fell about 1%. The drop came after a September rally built on the Amazon (AMZN) data center deal, an AI optical interconnect demo, the Snapdragon Summit, and the Apple (AAPL) license renewal.
Consensus fiscal 2027 revenue on TIKR sits about 3% above its June 30 level, while the shares slipped about 1% from their June 28 close. Qualcomm’s investor relations materials guided revenue for the September 2026 quarter to $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion.
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Sources Split on What Sank Qualcomm on September 28
StockStory tied the drop to fading momentum, a tech selloff on rising yields, and stalled Samsung foundry talks, while TradingKey called it profit-taking after the rally. None of the coverage pointed to a new Qualcomm announcement.
Korea’s The Bell reported in mid-September that talks to make Qualcomm processors on Samsung Electronics’ (005930.KS) 2nm process had stalled over price. TrendForce and Digitimes point to yields as well, though other reports put Samsung’s 2nm yields above 70%. These remain press reports, not confirmed terms.
The new Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 is built on Taiwan Semiconductor’s (TSM) N2P node, so the dispute concerns a possible second source rather than the TSMC supply already in place. TSM shares rose 0.50% on September 28.
Among the newest iPhones, only the U.S. iPhone 18 Pro Max still uses a Qualcomm modem. So the Apple license, effective April 1, 2027, with no disclosed term or royalty rate, keeps royalties coming while chip sales shrink.
Revenue Estimates Rose, but the Stock Got Pricier on Earnings
The fiscal 2027 figure, around $44.9 billion, came from 33 analysts at both snapshots. Fiscal 2028 rose about 5% to around $51.9 billion while coverage grew from 17 to 24 analysts, and fiscal 2029 slipped about 2%.
TIKR’s NTM normalized EPS estimate fell from about $9.80 on June 28 to about $9.30 on September 28. As a result, the stock’s NTM P/E rose from about 19x to about 20x even though the price fell.
At Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 8, CFO and COO Akash Palkhiwala backed the roughly $5 billion fiscal 2027 data center target, citing purchase orders: “we have POs, we’re building the chips.” He expects gross margins “somewhere in the range of where we are at today,” with custom products “lower in margin than our current rate” and merchant products “significantly higher.”
Qualcomm has set a 30% operating margin target about three years out. Palkhiwala said OpEx increases will trail growth “significantly,” though he did not specify the target’s basis at the conference. TIKR’s consensus EBIT margin slides from around 31% in fiscal 2026 to around 28% in fiscal 2027, then recovers to around 32% by fiscal 2029.
The Street models December 2026 quarter sales down about 14% year over year, even with Amazon revenue starting. Palkhiwala said memory is now “more than half of the BOM,” or bill of materials, on many phones under $300, while the top tier has “not seen much of an impact.” CEO Cristiano Amon had said on July 29 that premium buyers were shifting toward cheaper models.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $187.48
- Target Price (Mid): ~$388
- Potential Total Return: ~107%
- Annualized IRR: ~20% / year
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Under its mid-case assumptions, the TIKR model projects around $388 by September 30, 2030, a roughly 107% total return or about 20% a year. Across its 2025 to 2035 forecast, the mid case assumes around 10% revenue CAGR and a net income margin of around 26.5%, below the model’s 29.6% one-year historical figure.
The growth case rests on data center silicon and automotive; on September 8, Palkhiwala said, “Next year, we expect to be the largest chip supplier to the automotive industry.” The main risk is a longer handset slump, and upside needs the custom silicon ramp to hold margins.
The Street is more cautious: 22 of 37 rated analysts say Hold, the ~$194 mean target sits about 3.5% above the price, and the lowest target is $100.
Conclusion
The next checkpoint is Qualcomm’s fiscal fourth-quarter report; the fiscal 2025 version came on November 5, 2025. Its guide for the December 2026 quarter will be the first to include Amazon revenue. A revenue midpoint above the Street’s roughly $10.6 billion would support the higher estimates; a lower one would weaken the case.
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Should You Invest in Qualcomm?
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Pull up Qualcomm, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
