Key Stats for Nu Holdings Stock
- Current Price: $12.23
- Target Price (Mid): ~$32
- Street Target: ~$19
- Potential Total Return: ~158%
- Annualized IRR: ~25% / year
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What Happened?
Nu Holdings (NU) lost about $6.6 billion of market value on September 28, 2026, the first trading session after Sky News reported on September 26 that UK digital bank Monzo was in sale talks with Nu. Bloomberg confirmed the discussions through its own sources. Shares fell 10.01% to $12.23 while the S&P 500 fell 0.77% and Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 0.26%, so the drop was specific to Nu.
The lost value equals 49% to 62% of the £8 billion to £10 billion ($10.6 billion to $13.3 billion) valuation reported for Monzo, yet no deal has been announced. Monzo is also weighing a new funding round or a minority stake sale, and Nu said it does not comment on rumors or speculation. Until terms appear in Nu’s investor relations materials, the deal is a report, not an agreement.
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Nu Would Buy in One Deal What Mexico Took Eight Years to Build
Nu’s September 10 launch event in Miami introduced U.S. banking and Nu Global, a multi-currency account whose transfers start with Europe and Latin America. There, founder and CEO David Vélez described how Nu set out to enter new markets: “start very focused, earn the trust of each customer one at a time.”
That approach took Nu from entering Mexico in 2018 to more than 16 million customers there by September 2026. Monzo reported 15.2 million customers as of March 31, 2026, in its FY2026 annual report. A deal would buy a base of similar size in one step, plus a licensed UK bank in Europe, where Nu Global’s transfers begin.
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Monzo’s Profits Look Thin Next to Nu’s
Monzo earned £87.3 million of statutory pre-tax profit, or £172.6 million adjusted, in the year to March 31, 2026, as revenue rose 39% to £1.7 billion. In fiscal 2025, Nu earned $3,868.42 million of GAAP pre-tax profit on $15,774.74 million of revenue, a 24.5% pre-tax margin.
The reported range is also roughly double Monzo’s £4.5 billion valuation from October 2024. Sky reported that a deal would likely mix cash and shares, which would mean issuing new stock near Nu’s $11.20 intraday 52-week low.
Needham analyst Kyle Peterson kept a Buy rating and $19 target on September 28, slightly above the $18.69 Street mean. He pointed to Monzo’s £2.3 billion of loans against £25.7 billion of deposits as room for Nu to lend more. Before the reports, Itaú BBA had cut Nu to Market Perform on September 16 and lowered its target to $18 from $20, citing Brazil’s consumer environment.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $12.23
- Target Price (Mid): ~$32
- Potential Total Return: ~158%
- Annualized IRR: ~25% / year
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The mid case is the baseline, and like the low and high cases, it predates any deal terms. It reaches around $32 by December 31, 2030. The model’s 2025-to-2035 mid-case assumptions call for around 21% annual revenue growth and a net margin near 19%, close to Nu’s 19.7% normalized net income margin in fiscal 2025.
Brazil supplies most of the base: reported operating revenue there rose to $11,038.31 million in 2025 from $8,409.96 million, while Mexico rose to $808.11 million from $523.11 million. The main risk is that a share-funded purchase of a lower-margin bank dilutes both margin and share count. In the high case, growth runs around 23% with a margin near 21%; the low case assumes around 19% and 18%.
The terms will show whether the selloff went too far. Around £8 billion paid mostly in cash would ease the dilution fear, while £10 billion paid largely in shares near $12 would confirm it. Third-quarter results are expected in mid-November, and Nu’s first Investor Day on December 8, 2026, is the confirmed date for management to present its long-term strategy and growth plans.
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Should You Invest in Nu Holdings?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
