Key Takeaways
- D-Wave Quantum stock fell 31% in the past month as IonQ’s $2 billion stock sale and a new class action against D-Wave hit quantum stocks, with Rigetti Computing down 26% and IonQ down 20%.
- D-Wave had $546 million of cash at June 30, against about $290 million of cash burn analysts expect through 2028.
- Analysts expect about $32 million of fourth-quarter revenue, far more than management’s guide requires, and third-quarter results are due in early November.
- At nearly 68x forward sales, the stock still prices in a lot of growth, so waiting for the fourth-quarter outlook makes more sense than loading up now.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is down 31% in the past month (through Tuesday’s close), while the S&P 500 rose 1%. It had company: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) fell 26% and IonQ (IONQ) 20% over the same stretch.
Most of the damage came in one ugly week in mid-October, and IonQ lit the fuse.
D-Wave had already slipped about 15% by Oct. 9, as a late-September quantum rally faded. It’s now down 55% in 2026.
IonQ’s dilution became everyone’s problem
On Oct. 12, IonQ agreed to buy cybersecurity company Elisity in an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3 billion. IonQ sank 9%, and D-Wave fell 5.7%.
Two days later, IonQ priced a $2 billion stock sale. D-Wave dropped 10% to a new 52-week low, its worst day of the month.
Investors read IonQ’s raise as a preview: quantum companies burn cash, and the cash comes from new shares.
D-Wave has time
D-Wave held $546 million of cash and marketable securities at June 30. Analysts’ estimates point to about $290 million of cash burn between July 2026 and the end of 2028.
It also finalized up to $100 million of CHIPS Act funding in September, and the government gets a minority equity stake in return. Rigetti landed a matching deal on the same terms.
That’s still dilution, just slower. And D-Wave has sold stock before: about 51 million shares in the first half of 2025.
TIKR tracks 17 analysts on D-Wave Quantum. How many say “Buy”?
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A lawsuit on top
On Oct. 16, law firms publicized a securities class action filed the day before. It covers buyers from Feb. 26 to Aug. 25, 2026, and alleges D-Wave overstated its prospects, pointing to a second-quarter revenue miss and CFO John Markovich’s retirement. The stock fell 8% that day as tech sold off. The claims are unproven.
The business kept shipping
D-Wave’s own news was good all month. It launched a gate-model simulator beta with BBVA among the testers, partnered with CGI, signed a multi-year manufacturing deal with IonQ-owned SkyWater, and delivered an Advantage2 system to Como, Italy, under a €10 million deal.
None of it held the stock up.
Everything rides on the fourth quarter
Management has said the fourth quarter will bring most of 2026’s revenue, with two annealing system sales likely to ship then. Analysts expect revenue to climb from $24.6 million in 2025 to $42.5 million this year, and to nearly double again in 2027.
That 2026 figure needs about $32 million in the fourth quarter alone, more than five times D-Wave’s whole first half ($5.94 million). Management’s guide asks for far less: with sales that small so far, around $10 million in the fourth quarter would be enough to make it most of the year.
Third-quarter results come in early November, D-Wave’s first report since Markovich left on Sept. 2.
Still pricey after a 55% drop
Even after this year’s drop, D-Wave trades at nearly 68x forward sales.
That’s far below its peak of nearly 839x in October 2025 and its three-year average of about 151x, but a long way above the 4.9x it fetched in October 2023.
The 17 analysts covering it still rate it a Strong Buy on average, with a mean target of about $35, roughly three times Tuesday’s close.
My take: Selling now means selling a drop that mostly came from IonQ’s financing. Loading up means betting on a $32 million quarter, more than D-Wave has booked in any full year. I’d wait for early November’s report and the fourth-quarter guide that comes with it.
Of course, if those two systems ship on time, today’s price could look like a gift.
So what is D-Wave Quantum stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
