Key Takeaways
- Eli Lilly stock rose 10% in the week through Tuesday’s close to a record, while the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5%.
- Most of the gain came as a hot inflation report pushed investors out of AI stocks and into big drugmakers, with Merck and AbbVie rising alongside Lilly.
- Analysts already expect more 2026 revenue than the top of Lilly’s own guidance, and the company reports third-quarter results on Oct. 29.
- Lilly trades at about 33x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 40x, but only about 4% under the Street’s average price target.
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock gained 10% in the past week (through Tuesday’s close) and finished at a record close. Over the same stretch, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5%.
That’s more than $100 billion of market value added in a week when the market went backward, and very little of it came from Lilly’s own news.
A hot inflation report sent the money to pharma
The biggest day was Wednesday, Oct. 14, when Lilly rose 3.6%. A hot September inflation report that morning revived bets on Fed rate hikes, and investors sold AI stocks for healthcare names, with no Lilly news behind the move. Merck (MRK) rose 3.8% that day, and AbbVie (ABBV) gained 3.3% to a record close.
Lilly added another 3.5% on Thursday as the tech selloff kept pushing money into big pharma, with AbbVie and Lilly both trading at or near records. Then came 3.5% more on Tuesday, when drugmakers rallied across the board (Merck rose 2.8%) and Goldman Sachs raised its target to $1,413 from $1,371, a day after BofA lifted its own to $1,397.
Rate-hike fears hit hardest where a stock’s value rests on profits years away, and AI has plenty of those. People keep filling prescriptions whatever the Fed does.
And Lilly is the rare defensive stock that’s also growing fast.
TIKR tracks 31 analysts on Eli Lilly. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Eli Lilly, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Eli Lilly’s Analyst Ratings
The growth is real
Analysts see revenue climbing from $65.2 billion in 2025 to $88.6 billion this year, about 36% growth, before it slows to about 15% in 2027.
That 2026 estimate is already above the top of Lilly’s own guidance of $85 billion to $87 billion, so the Street is counting on a raise.
Mounjaro and Zepbound do most of the work: they brought in $14.9 billion in the second quarter, when total revenue rose 48%. Foundayo, Lilly’s weight-loss pill, is the next leg. The European Medicines Agency’s committee recommended approving it on Oct. 15, though it sold just $98 million in the second quarter.
Oct. 29 has to deliver
Lilly reports third-quarter results on Oct. 29, and Zacks’ consensus calls for $22.11 billion of revenue, up 26% from a year ago. Two things matter most: whether Lilly raises its full-year guidance to meet the Street, and whether Foundayo built on that $98 million.
Cheap for Lilly, but close to the targets
Even at a record, Lilly trades at about 33x forward earnings after Tuesday’s move. That’s below its five-year average of 40x and far from its 67x peak in October 2023.
The Street’s targets are the catch. Over the past year, the average target has risen 49% to $1,330, while the stock gained 60%…
…which leaves that target only about 4% above Tuesday’s close. Even Goldman’s $1,413 sits only about 10% higher.
Lilly also leans heavily on two drugs. And if tech stocks bounce, the money that rotated in this week can rotate right back out.
So is there room to run? Over the long run, I think so. Lilly is still priced below its usual multiple for growth that’s real, and I’d happily own it. But at a record, a few percent from the average target, I’d wait for Oct. 29 before buying more.
Of course, a guidance raise on Oct. 29 would likely lift those targets too, and give the stock more room.
So what is Eli Lilly stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Eli Lilly could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
