Eli Lilly (LLY) stock rose roughly 4% on Wednesday, October 14, joining a broad rally in healthcare stocks. No major Lilly news drove it. After a hot September inflation report revived bets on Fed rate hikes, investors sold AI stocks and moved into defensive healthcare names. Merck (MRK) rose 3.8%, and AbbVie (ABBV) gained 3.3% to a record close.
Lilly is an unusual defensive pick: it’s a growth stock. But its earnings run on obesity drug demand (Mounjaro and Zepbound brought in $12.8 billion in the first quarter), not AI spending or cheap credit.
Lilly’s Earnings Are Doing the Work
Analysts expect Lilly’s normalized EPS to climb from $24.21 in 2025 to $35.22 in 2026, a 45% jump, then to $47.48 in 2027.
That growth has pulled the multiple down even as the stock climbed. Lilly trades at about 31x forward earnings, below its three-year average of 40x and far under its 67x peak. The multiple has crept back up since May, though, when TIKR’s coverage had it at 25.6x.
So the money that moved in on Wednesday didn’t pay a stretched multiple. It paid less than Lilly’s usual price for earnings expected to grow 35% next year.
The Catch Comes in 2028
Growth slows sharply after 2027. Consensus has EPS rising only 15% in 2028, to $54.43. The multiple bottomed near 23x as recently as August 2025, a reminder of how fast it can compress when growth doubts surface.
Lilly’s October 29 Report Will Test the Bid
Lilly reports third-quarter results on October 29, and RBC expects the company to raise its full-year revenue guidance of $85 billion to $87 billion, supported by Mounjaro and Zepbound demand. The report will test whether stronger sales can lift earnings expectations further and support Wednesday’s rally. Without an upgrade, the stock could be vulnerable if the defensive rotation reverses.
Want to see where Lilly’s multiple sits against its own history, or track how consensus EPS moves after October 29? Pull up the same charts on TIKR for free. Learn more here.
So what is Eli Lilly stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
