[IMAGE CREDIT: U.S. Air Force photo by Trevor Cokley and Bl∡ke from Pexels via Canva]
Key Takeaways
- Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage in the third quarter, about 2.2 GWh short of the 15.9 GWh analysts expected, even as vehicle deliveries beat estimates.
- Storage matters more than its share of revenue suggests, because Tesla’s operating margin was just 1.4% in the second quarter.
- Energy’s gross margin had already fallen to 20.4% in the second quarter from 39.5% in the first, and Mike Snyder, who ran energy and charging, has reportedly left.
- Tonight’s call is the first chance to hear whether the shortfall is a matter of timing or the start of a slowdown.
Tesla (TSLA) reports third-quarter results after the close today.
But one of the numbers that matters most is already out, and it came in light.
The miss behind the delivery beat
Tesla’s Oct. 2 production report showed deliveries beating Wall Street’s estimates. The energy storage figure in the same report got a lot less attention:
- 13.7 GWh deployed in the third quarter
- About 15.9 GWh expected by analysts, so it came in 14% light
- Up 9.6% from 12.5 GWh a year ago, and barely above the second quarter’s 13.5 GWh
- Still short of the 14.2 GWh record set in the fourth quarter of 2025
That flat quarter came even after a new factory in Texas started production in August.
TIKR tracks 44 analysts on Tesla. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Tesla, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Tesla’s Analyst Ratings
Storage has been carrying more than its share
Energy is the smaller business. It brought in $3.14 billion of Tesla’s $28.24 billion in second-quarter revenue, about 11%. But it has mattered more as the margins on the rest of the company have shrunk.
Gross margin dropped from 25.6% in 2022 to 18.0% in 2025, and it slipped again to 16.8% in the second quarter of 2026. The operating margin that quarter was 1.4%.
Energy’s gross margin held up much better for a while: 39.5% in the first quarter. Then it fell to 20.4% in the second. Tesla pointed to warranty charges tied to a supplier’s cell issue, one-time tariff benefits that didn’t repeat, and lower prices for industrial storage as competition heats up.
So now both the volume and the pricing of storage are in question.
And then there’s the leadership change. Mike Snyder, Tesla’s vice president of energy and charging, has stepped down, [The Wall Street Journal reported](LINK NEEDED) on Oct. 15. Snyder joined Tesla in 2014 and rose to run the Megapack business. He took the top energy job in 2024, after longtime energy chief Drew Baglino left. AJ Booth, senior director of energy products engineering, is reportedly taking over, while Elon Musk steers Tesla toward AI and robotics.
Storage deployments jump around from quarter to quarter: Tesla deployed just 8.8 GWh in the first quarter before jumping 53% in the second. One light quarter doesn’t make a trend.
But a light quarter, a lower margin and a new boss all at once is a lot of change for the business that has been propping up Tesla’s margins.
The Street still expects growth
For the third quarter, analysts expect $28.25 billion of revenue, roughly flat with a year ago, and operating income of $946 million, down from $1.62 billion. Over the longer term, they see growth picking back up.
Analysts expect revenue to go from $94.8 billion in 2025 to $107 billion this year and $145 billion by 2028. A 2.2 GWh miss won’t move those numbers much by itself. A weaker outlook for storage tonight could.
What I’m listening for tonight
The call is at 5:30 p.m. ET. The question that matters is whether those missing gigawatt-hours slipped into the fourth quarter as the Texas factory ramps up, or whether demand and pricing are softening.
My take: Storage is the part of Tesla I’d watch most closely tonight. With the company barely profitable at the operating line, a slowdown in energy would leave Tesla leaning even harder on AI and robotics promises that don’t show up in the numbers yet.
Of course, if management says the shortfall was just timing, the real test comes with fourth-quarter deployments in early January.
So what is Tesla stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Tesla could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
