Key Stats for Nike Stock
- Current Price: $38.32
- Target Price (Mid): ~$90
- Street Target: ~$36.50
- Potential Total Return: ~134%
- Annualized IRR: ~20% / year
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What Happened?
Barclays raised its price target on Nike (NKE) to $45 from $37 on Oct. 22 after analyst Adrienne Yih met with management, calling the shares near a bottom. The new target still sits below the $48 Barclays set before Nike’s Oct. 1 report. Wolfe Research analyst Spencer Hanus went the other way, opening coverage at Underperform with a $28 target.
Nike closed at $38.32 on Oct. 22, up 2.10%, about 5% above the Street’s $36.50 mean target. In afternoon trading on Oct. 23, shares were down about 2% as Lululemon (LULU) and Under Armour (UAA) fell about 4% with no news of their own.
Barclays Is Paying More for the Same Earnings
Yih raised her valuation multiple and left her earnings estimates unchanged, according to dpa-AFX. She expects the stock to stay rangebound until a return to growth is clear. The raise is a bet that the reset is already priced in, not a forecast of better numbers.
The Street’s own numbers reset after the Oct. 1 guidance, which called for a high-single-digit revenue decline in fiscal 2027:
- Between Sept. 30 and Oct. 23, consensus fiscal 2027 revenue fell 5.6% to $42.8 billion.
- Fiscal 2028 fell 7.5% to $43.3 billion.
- Fiscal 2029 and 2030 estimates fell by similar margins.
Consensus still has revenue growing about 1% in fiscal 2028, after a roughly 8% decline in fiscal 2027.
Earnings estimates now sit inside the guide. Consensus fiscal 2027 normalized EPS of $1.28 falls within the $1.15 to $1.35 adjusted range Nike gave, which excludes roughly $0.15 of Pace costs. CFO Dave Denton said guidance should be set “at a level that we believe is reasonable and attainable based on the information we have today.” If Nike lands inside that range, Barclays’ higher multiple has a stable base. A miss would leave it resting on lower earnings.
TIKR tracks 44 analysts on Nike. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nike, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nike’s Analyst Ratings
Lifestyle Demand Has to Return Before Growth Does
CEO Elliott Hill named the main obstacle: “there’s a lack of energy in the lifestyle space right now, which is impacting traffic.” Part of the Sportswear drag is planned. Nike cut Dunk revenue by nearly 50% in the fiscal first quarter, a roughly $200 million headwind.
The quarter also showed what works. Hill said Studio Fleece, launched during back-to-school, was the best-performing apparel collection of the quarter across all of Nike. Newness at that scale is what a return to growth requires.
The near-term bar is already low. Consensus has fiscal second-quarter revenue down about 11% and EPS down about 25%. A plan that keeps revenue shrinking into fiscal 2028 would push those estimates lower again.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $38.32
- Target Price (Mid): ~$90
- Potential Total Return: ~134%
- Annualized IRR: ~20% / year
The model’s mid-case inputs assume revenue grows around 4% a year. Consensus revenue grows about 1.7% a year from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2031, and the fiscal 2031 figure rests on just three analysts. That puts the model well ahead of the Street on sales recovery. If revenue tracks consensus, around $90 is too high. If Nike shows a credible path back to growth, the mid case has support.
Conclusion
Investor Day on Nov. 16 and 17 is the first chance to meet Barclays’ own condition. A dated return to revenue growth within fiscal 2028 supports the $45 target. A plan that pushes growth beyond fiscal 2028 reopens the estimate cuts and moves the debate toward Wolfe’s $28.
So what is Nike stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
