Key Stats for Roku Stock
- Current Price: $160.06
- Target Price (Mid): ~$324
- Street Target: ~$162
- Potential Total Return: ~103%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
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What Happened?
Roku (ROKU) reports third-quarter results after the market closes on Monday, November 2, with no earnings call and no outlook. Wall Street expects adjusted EBITDA of around $163 million, about 36% below the $254.3 million Roku reported for the second quarter. Part of that gap was flagged in Roku’s own second-quarter letter: the quarter included a tariff refund that will not repeat.
Roku shares closed at $160.06 on October 22, a 52-week closing high and up about 48% in 2026.
A Tariff Refund Lifted Roku’s Second Quarter
Roku’s second-quarter shareholder letter said its Devices gross margin of 20.1% benefited from a refund of IEEPA tariffs paid from the second quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026. Without it, Devices gross margin would have been negative 7.6%, and net income would have been $127 million instead of $164.2 million.
The letter also said distribution costs for Roku TV models, a large part of sales and marketing expense, would be weighted toward the second half. Against that, political ad spending was expected to build late in the third quarter and into the fourth. Consensus revenue of around $1.41 billion implies growth of around 17%, slower than the second quarter’s 21.93%. Roku has topped revenue estimates in each of the last five quarters TIKR shows.
Roku’s CEO Flagged Memory Costs in June
On the June 15 deal call, Roku founder and CEO Anthony Wood said, “we use a lot less memory than our competitors. And right now, memory prices are going through the roof.” Using less memory softens the hit, but Roku still buys it. Its second-quarter letter said the company continues to monitor pricing pressure from tightening memory chip supply.
Devices margin carries both memory and tariff costs, and it has moved the wrong way. It ran at 0.0% in the second quarter of 2025 and negative 7.6% in the second quarter of 2026 before the refund. Roku’s gross margin over the last twelve months stands at 45.5%, and consensus has the full year 2026 at around 46%.
TIKR tracks 27 analysts on Roku. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Roku, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Roku’s Analyst Ratings
Fox Reports First on November 2
Fox Corporation (FOXA) reports its fiscal first quarter at about 8:00 a.m. ET on November 2, before Roku. That matters because part of the payout is Fox stock: 0.9693 Fox Class A shares plus $96 in cash per Roku share, worth about $162.17 at Fox’s October 22 close of $68.27. BofA Securities upgraded Fox to Buy from Underperform on October 16 and raised its target to $85 from $54.
Shareholders of both companies approved the deal on October 14. The Justice Department issued a Second Request on September 8, and no clearance had been announced as of October 23. Fox still targets a close in the first half of 2027.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $160.06
- Target Price (Mid): ~$324
- Potential Total Return: ~103%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
The mid case values Roku as a standalone business at around $324 by December 31, 2030. That value applies only if the deal fails; if it closes, Roku holders’ returns follow Fox’s stock. Wall Street sits near the deal price, with 6 Buys, 1 Outperform, and 20 Holds and a mean target of $162.33.
Conclusion
Adjusted EBITDA near $163 million would be consistent with the refund dropping out and the second-half cost ramp arriving. The cleaner read is Devices gross margin. A figure above the second quarter’s negative 7.6% ex-refund would suggest Roku’s lower memory needs are offsetting chip inflation. A figure below it would point to hardware costs still rising.
So what is Roku stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
