Key Stats for Vistra Stock
- Current Price: $140.16
- Street Target: ~$210
- NTM EV/EBITDA: ~9x
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What Happened?
Vistra (VST) closed down 9.81% at $140.83 on October 22, 2026, the session after Meta Platforms (META) reported third-quarter results. As CNBC reported, AI-linked stocks sold off broadly on worries about the soaring cost of data center expansion: Constellation Energy (CEG) closed down 5.74%, and Quanta Services (PWR) was down more than 8% in afternoon trading. Meta has signed 20-year nuclear contracts with Vistra, but management’s own numbers suggest Vistra leans less on the data center boom than that selloff priced in.
Vistra Already Marked Down the Data Center Queue
Meta raised the low end of its 2026 capital spending forecast to $135 billion and announced a new class of non-voting shares, which Reuters reported revived concern over its mounting capital commitments.
On Vistra’s August 7 earnings call, President and CEO Jim Burke said ERCOT’s data center queue has at times been described as over 400 GW, while Vistra expects roughly 12 to 15 GW by 2030. “So when you have numbers overstated by more than 20x, it causes problems for policymakers,” Burke said. Of the 5% to 6% annual Texas load growth Vistra projects, he attributed about 3 points to oil and gas, residential, and small business demand and about 2 points to data centers. He gave a local example: eight data center projects were under consideration in one county near a Vistra nuclear plant, and he said “there is a reasonable chance there’ll be no projects in that county.”
If financing strain slows hyperscaler buildouts, speculative queue projects are likely to slip before signed contracts do. Most of the Meta deal rests on existing assets: according to Vistra’s filings, 2,176 MW of the 2,609 MW comes from the operating Perry and Davis-Besse plants. Burke said equipment prices have, in some cases, “doubled, if not tripled,” so buyers pay a premium for existing plants because they still cost less than new construction.
Vistra is not insulated, though. It has committed up to $1 billion to Helix Digital Infrastructure, a data center platform it joined with KKR, NVIDIA, and the Kuwait Investment Authority, with anything above $500 million tied to milestones.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Vistra. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Vistra, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Vistra’s Analyst Ratings
Nine Times EBITDA for a Steady Buyer of Its Own Stock
- NTM EV/EBITDA: ~9x (October 23, 2026), down from ~13x (September 30, 2025)
- Street Mean Target: ~$210 across 21 price targets, about 50% above the October 23 close
- Ratings: 17 Buy, 4 Outperform, 1 Underperform
Vistra has been a steady buyer of its own shares, retiring about 171 million since November 2021 at an average cost of about $38. It had roughly $1.2 billion of buyback authorization left as of August, which it expects to use by the end of 2027. HSBC initiated coverage at Buy with a $190 target on October 22, below the Street mean.
Texas power prices remain the near-term drag: in August, CFO Kris Moldovan said 2027 ERCOT forward curves were meaningfully lower than in October 2025. Separately, Raymond James lowered its target to $176 from $182 on October 21. The October 23 close of $140.16 sat just above the September 30 close of $138.35.
Conclusion
Vistra reports third-quarter results on November 6, with the first Meta deliveries scheduled to begin in late 2026. Confirmation that the start date holds would suggest October 22 priced Meta’s financing questions rather than Vistra’s contracts. A delay would be the first sign the two are linked.
So what is Vistra stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
