Key Stats for Gilead Stock
- Current Price: $139.71
- Target Price (Mid): $159.55
- Street Target: $157.43
- Potential Total Return: +14.2%
- Annualized IRR: 2.80% / year
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What Happened?
Gilead Sciences (GILD) stock has fallen 11% from its 52-week high of $157.29, hitting a max drawdown of 13.83% on March 27, 2026, as a broad market selloff weighed on large-cap healthcare.
Bulls say Gilead is entering its most active pipeline year in over a decade. Bears say the stock had already run hard and that two major acquisitions in roughly five weeks have stretched the balance sheet.
The question investors are asking right now is whether this pullback is a buying opportunity or a rational reset.
The headline deal came on February 23, when Gilead announced a definitive agreement to acquire Arcellx for $115 per share in cash plus a contingent value right of $5 per share, implying a total equity value of $7.8 billion.
The centerpiece is anitocabtagene autoleucel (anito-cel), an investigational BCMA-directed CAR T-cell therapy, meaning a treatment that reprograms a patient’s T cells to destroy cancer cells expressing the BCMA protein, for patients with multiple myeloma.
The therapy has been submitted for FDA approval based on a 96% response rate in patients whose disease had relapsed or not responded to at least three prior treatments, with a decision expected by December 23, 2026.
Then on March 31, Gilead entered a collaboration with Galapagos NV to develop gamgertamig, a BCMA-directed T-cell engager (a bispecific antibody that simultaneously binds BCMA on immune cells and CD3 on T cells to trigger targeted destruction) for autoimmune diseases.
Henry Gosebruch, Chief Executive Officer of Galapagos, described the asset on the M&A conference call as a “potential first and best-in-class T-cell engager” with “multibillion-dollar potential in multiple autoimmune diseases.”
Registrational studies are targeted to begin as early as 2027, and Gilead holds worldwide commercialization rights outside Greater China.
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Is Gilead Undervalued Today?
Biktarvy generated $14,334 million in 2025 revenue per TIKR segment data, with U.S. exclusivity running to 2036. On Gilead’s Q4 2025 earnings call, management noted that Biktarvy holds over 52% of the HIV treatment market in the United States.
Yeztugo (lenacapavir), the first twice-yearly injectable for HIV prevention, is tracking toward management’s 2026 target of $800 million in sales, up from $150 million in 2025.
Gilead’s 11.16x NTM EV/EBITDA compares to AbbVie at 12.94x and Amgen at 11.00x, with NTM EV/Revenue at 6.17x versus AbbVie’s 6.45x and Amgen’s 6.18x. Gilead is priced at a modest discount to both, with more near-term catalysts than either.
CEO Daniel O’Day has targeted four commercial launches in 2026: Trodelvy for first-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (an aggressive form of breast cancer lacking the three most common receptor targets), a daily oral bictegravir/lenacapavir combination for HIV treatment, anito-cel for fourth-line or later multiple myeloma, and Bulevirtide for chronic hepatitis delta in the U.S.
Four launches in a single year are aggressive for any company. The Inflation Reduction Act has also added Biktarvy to the Medicare price negotiation list, which could weigh on U.S. HIV revenues starting in 2028.
The autoimmune angle adds a dimension most models have not yet captured.
The March 31 M&A call transcript shows that Gilead and Galapagos reviewed data from more than 60 patients across five distinct autoimmune indications, with durable complete responses and no cytokine release syndrome observed at attenuated dose schedules.
Eric Hedrick, Head of Clinical Evaluation at Galapagos, stated on the call that the team is “confident that we will identify prior to the end of 2026 a go-forward dose and schedule of gamgertamig that is characterized by durable remissions.”
The addressable disease spectrum spans more than 20 autoimmune indications. That optionality is not in most models today.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $139.71
- Target Price (Mid): $159.55
- Potential Total Return: +14.2%
- Annualized IRR: 2.80% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model uses a 5.2% revenue CAGR through 12/31/30, driven by lenacapavir scaling from its 2025 base and oncology diversification through Trodelvy and the anito-cel franchise. Net income margin expands to 41.2% in the mid case, supported by operating leverage from the high-margin HIV core. The 14.2% total return over 4.7 years is modest. But with a 2.3% dividend yield, $9,456 million in LTM free cash flow, and no patent cliff until 2036, the downside from current levels appears well-floored.
The primary risk is a multi-launch miss. If Trodelvy’s first-line approval is delayed, anito-cel faces stiffer competition than expected in multiple myeloma, and Yeztugo uptake slows, the mid-case revenue assumptions become difficult to defend. That is the scenario keeping bears engaged at these levels.
Conclusion: Watch Yeztugo revenue at Gilead’s Q1 2026 earnings, expected in late April. A quarterly run rate consistent with management’s $800 million full-year target would signal the lenacapavir PrEP launch is on track and would likely push GILD back toward the Street’s $157.43 mean target. At 16.12x forward earnings with a fortress HIV franchise, four near-term launches, full CAR-T ownership ahead of an FDA decision, and an unpriced autoimmune collaboration, the current pullback looks more like an entry point than a warning.
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Should You Invest in Gilead?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Gilead, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
