Key Stats for GE Aerospace Stock
- Current Price: $317.89
- Target Price (Mid): ~$540
- Street Target: ~$397
- Potential Total Return: ~70%
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What Happened?
GE Aerospace (GE) closed at $317.89 on September 29, 2026, 18.2% below the $388.84 intraday record it set on August 6. On September 14, Melius Research cut GE to Hold from Buy and lowered its target to $350 from $432, warning that aftermarket growth could slow to the high single digits in 2027. The same note downgraded four other aerospace names, including HEICO (HEI) and TransDigm (TDG), and TIKR’s closing-basis drawdown on GE bottomed at 19.46% the next day.
On September 28, the FAA delayed certification of Boeing’s (BA) 737 MAX 10 over a flight-guidance software fault that Administrator Bryan Bedford said GE Aerospace supplied. Boeing closed down 6.9%, and GE fell 2.7%, though TradingKey tied GE’s decline to valuation debates rather than the FAA news. The fault sits in flight-management software, not the LEAP engine, but United is not accepting deliveries of jets carrying the affected version.
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CFM56 Retirements Are Running at Half the Rate GE First Planned for 2026
On September 17, Chief Financial Officer Rahul Ghai told Morgan Stanley’s Laguna conference that CFM56 retirements should settle between 1.5% and 2% in 2026. GE’s first 2026 outlook assumed 3% to 4%, a range it cut to 2% to 3% at the start of the year and to about 2% by spring. The bigger gap sits further out: Ghai said GE had internally expected retirements to reach 3% to 4% as the basis for its 2027 and 2028 numbers, and “we’re not seeing that based on the current trends.”
Ghai did sketch retirements rising to “maybe 3% or so next year.” He said conversions for power generation could absorb about a point of that, since 100 engines equal roughly one point of retirements, and FTAI Aviation (FTAI) has said it could build more than 100 CFM56-based power turbines a year. Engines diverted to power plants do not feed the used-parts market, which keeps material scarce and supports GE’s new spare-part sales.
About 80% of GE’s CFM56 work comes from aircraft younger than 20 years, while retirements usually hit older jets, and Ghai said CFM56 shop visits in 2026 and 2027 are “probably closer to 2,400 than 2,300.”
Looking ahead, Ghai said, “we expect that engine removals will be up double digits, more than 10% in the first half of next year, which is the visibility that we have.” Removals feed future shop visits, making that visibility the first check on Melius’s high-single-digit call.
The caveat is traffic. Ghai acknowledged air traffic fell in the second quarter and said growth in July and August was slow.
GE Now Trades Below Howmet and HEICO on Forward Earnings
GE’s forward P/E ratio sits near 38x, per TIKR, below aerospace parts makers Howmet Aerospace (HWM), near 40x, and HEICO, near 44x, though above TransDigm, near 24x. On forward EV/EBITDA, GE sits roughly level with Howmet and above HEICO, so the discount holds on earnings but not on every multiple. Jefferies trimmed its target to $435 from $455 ahead of the third-quarter report while keeping a Buy rating.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $317.89
- Target Price (Mid): ~$540
- Potential Total Return: ~70%
- Annualized IRR: ~13% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case values GE at around $540 by December 31, 2030, a roughly 70% total return from $317.89, or about 13% a year over 4.2 years. Its card lists around 9% annual revenue growth, a net margin near 18%, and a P/E shrinking about 2% a year over a 2025 to 2035 forecast window.
Two drivers support that growth. The first is that demand for CFM56 overhauls is holding up longer. The second is GEnx, whose installed base Ghai expects to double between 2024 and 2030, with shop visits on engines sold since 2022 priced about 30% higher than on 2019 to 2021 sales. Repairs on LEAP parts, growing more than 20% a year at less than half the cost of a new part, carry the margin case.
Upside comes from 2027 services growth beating GE’s double-digit long-run trend, which Ghai said pent-up demand could deliver. Downside is the Melius scenario, where slower aftermarket growth meets a steeper de-rating than the model assumes.
Conclusion
GE reports third-quarter results on October 20, 2026, according to its investor relations materials, and Ghai said more 2027 color comes in October and January. A double-digit 2027 services outlook backed by removals up more than 10% would undercut the Melius call. Commentary pointing to high-single-digit services growth would suggest the slowdown has arrived and leave room for the multiple to keep falling.
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So what is GE Aerospace stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
