Key Fundamental Metrics for GRMN Stock
- 52-Week Range: ~$193 to ~$272
- Current Stock Price: $236.35
- LTM Gross Margin: 59.1%
- LTM EBIT Margin: 26.5%
- LTM Net Debt / EBITDA: (1.83x) net cash position
- Fwd 2-Year EPS CAGR: ~10%
- Dividend Yield: ~1.8%
- Mid-Case 10-Year Forward Stock Price Target: ~$430
See how FDA guidance on wearables could impact Garmin’s fitness segment growth by modeling regulatory scenarios on TIKR for free →
A Record Quarter That the Market Mostly Ignored
Garmin (GRMN) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.75 billion, up 14% year over year and a new first-quarter record. Pro forma EPS came in at $2.08, beating the consensus estimate of $1.81 by nearly 15%. Operating income grew 30% to $432 million, with operating margins expanding to 24.6%.
The stock dropped anyway. Investor concerns centered on rising inventory levels, tariff pressure in the Marine segment, and a broader market skittish about consumer hardware multiples. That reaction created a disconnect worth examining carefully.
At $236, GRMN trades roughly 13% below its recent highs despite a business that is compounding earnings at double digits, generating 59% gross margins, and sitting on a net cash balance sheet.
Stress test Garmin stock under slower consumer wearables demand but stable aviation orders using TIKR’s scenario tools for free →
Five Segments, One Coherent Strategy: How Garmin Built a Business No One Can Easily Copy
The segment table above tells the story of a company that has quietly transformed itself over the past five years. Fitness revenue nearly doubled from $1.1 billion in 2022 to $2.4 billion in 2025, driven by premium smartwatches like the Fenix and Forerunner series and a growing subscriber base on Garmin Connect.
Aviation has grown steadily from $713 million to $987 million, benefiting from avionics upgrade cycles and regulatory mandates that keep demand durable even when new aircraft production slows. Marine has climbed from $875 million to $1.2 billion, with products like chartplotters, fishfinders, and the new 360-degree scanning sonar system driving both new and repeat purchases.
Outdoor remains a large and profitable segment at $2.1 billion, though it posted a slight revenue dip in Q1 as the category digests strong post-pandemic demand. Auto OEM continues to lose money at the operating line, a known drag that reflects the long investment cycle required to embed Garmin systems in vehicle platforms before they reach scale.
The key insight from this table is that no single segment makes or breaks the thesis. Aviation protects against consumer spending weakness. Fitness drives growth. Marine and Outdoor generate consistent high-margin cash flows. That diversification is genuinely rare in consumer hardware, and it is a large part of why Garmin’s margins are so much better than peers.
Compare GRMN stock’s margin profile against Apple and Samsung wearables using consistent assumptions on TIKR for free →
The Earnings Compounding Machine: From $5 to $12 Per Share in a Decade
The EPS chart is one of the cleaner compounding stories in the consumer technology space. Garmin went from $5.82 in fiscal 2021 to $8.56 in 2025, a period that included supply chain disruptions, a global pandemic hangover, and intensifying competition from Apple in the wearables market. The consensus now projects around $9.58 for 2026, climbing toward $10 in 2027 and $12 by 2030.
That trajectory is built on a business model with genuine operating leverage. Because Garmin designs and manufactures most of its products in-house, margin improvements flow through more predictably than at companies relying on contract manufacturers. The 59% gross margin is not a cyclical artifact. It has been remarkably stable across different demand environments.
CEO Clifton Pemble noted on the Q1 call that the Fitness segment’s 42% revenue growth was driven by both higher unit volumes and a shift toward premium devices at higher average selling prices. That pricing power, in a market where Apple Watch competes directly, is not something most hardware companies can claim.
What the TIKR Valuation Model Says About GRMN at $236
TIKR’s mid-case valuation model targets around $430 for GRMN, implying a total return of around 82% from the current price, or roughly 14% annualized over the next 4.6 years. The model assumes around 9% annual revenue growth and net income margins holding near 22%, with EPS growing at around 8% per year on a compounded basis.
The low case lands at around $405, still representing around 72% upside. The high case reaches around $655. Even the conservative scenario implies the stock is meaningfully undervalued at current levels.
The model’s revenue growth assumption of around 9% is below Garmin’s last three-year CAGR of around 14%, so the forecast does not depend on the Fitness segment maintaining its current pace. It essentially asks whether Garmin can sustain a business-as-usual trajectory, and, on that basis, the numbers say yes.
The multiple is the only real debate. At around 25x forward earnings, GRMN is not cheap relative to its hardware peers. But a 59% gross margin, a net cash balance sheet, consistent dividend growth, and a $500 million buyback authorization announced alongside the full-year 2025 results are all arguments for a premium.
The market has historically rewarded Garmin with a higher multiple than it currently commands, and the earnings trajectory provides room for that rerating.
Is GRMN Worth Buying at Today’s Levels?
At $236, Garmin offers an unusual combination of growth, quality, and capital return that is difficult to find in the consumer technology space. The business is accelerating, not decelerating, and the Q1 results confirmed that the Fitness segment’s momentum is real and broad-based.
The near-term risk is tariff pressure in Marine and the ongoing inventory build, both of which management acknowledged on the Q1 call. Neither is a structural problem, but both could weigh on the stock in the near term if Q2 results show any margin slippage.
For investors with a multi-year horizon, the TIKR model’s mid-case suggests a compelling entry point at current levels, supported by one of the most durable margin profiles in hardware and an earnings compounding rate that the current valuation does not fully reflect.
Translate consensus revenue and margin estimates into a clear Garmin stock price target with TIKR’s guided model for free →
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
