Key Stats for TEAM Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 22%
- 52-Week Range: $56 to $223
- Valuation Model Target Price: around $150
- Implied Upside: around 60%
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What Happened?
Atlassian Corporation stock rose about 22% this week, recently trading near $101 per share after closing the prior session near $93, as investors warmed back up to one of the software market’s more debated AI stories. The key question is whether AI will weaken demand for Jira, Atlassian’s software-development and project-tracking tool, Confluence, its team knowledge platform, and Jira Service Management, its IT workflow product, or make those tools more valuable as companies create more code, workflows, and automation. That puts Atlassian in close comparison with ServiceNow in IT service management, GitLab and Microsoft’s GitHub in developer workflows, and Monday.com and Asana in work-management software.
The stock moved higher because Atlassian’s Q3 beat, stronger 2026 guidance, and fresh analyst support directly challenged the fear that AI is eating into demand for its core software tools. Atlassian reported Q3 revenue of about $1.8 billion, up 32% year over year, cloud revenue of about $1.1 billion, up 29%, and remaining performance obligations of about $4.0 billion, up 37%, while management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook to 24% from 22%. That gave investors a clearer signal that customers are still expanding cloud commitments and buying deeper into Atlassian’s platform.
This week, Atlassian’s Jefferies conference update added to the recovery story by showing that the company is expanding well beyond developer teams. CFO James Chuong said the “proof is in the performance,” pointing to Q3 outperformance from Teamwork Collection cross-sell, more than 1,000 Teamwork Collection customers with over 1 million seats, $1 million-plus customers growing 39% year over year, $3 million-plus customers growing 54%, JSM reaching $1 billion in ARR and growing 30%, Confluence becoming a $1.5 billion business, and Jira reaching $2.5 billion.
Analyst actions also reinforced the rebound. BTIG raised its Atlassian price target to $130 from $120 and kept a Buy rating after becoming more confident that the company is an AI beneficiary, while Barclays raised its target to $112 from $106 and kept an Overweight rating after Atlassian’s ARR disclosures pointed to improving enterprise momentum. These updates helped investors see the rally as more than a short-term bounce, with stronger earnings, AI monetization, and larger customer commitments supporting the 2026 setup.
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Is TEAM Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth: around 18%
- Operating Margins: around 29%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 19x
Atlassian’s valuation case depends on turning cloud migration, enterprise expansion, and AI adoption into durable subscription growth rather than just bouncing from a depressed stock price.
The revenue growth assumption depends on Data Center customers moving to cloud, larger companies buying more Atlassian products, and Rovo, Atlassian’s AI assistant layer, becoming a paid expansion driver across Jira, Confluence, and service-management workflows.
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The margin assumption depends on Atlassian getting more leverage from cloud infrastructure, larger enterprise contracts, and Teamwork Collection cross-sell without overspending to defend its position against ServiceNow, GitLab, GitHub, Monday.com, and Asana.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of around $150, implying around 60% total upside over roughly 2 years, indicating the stock appears undervalued at current prices.
At current levels, Atlassian appears undervalued, but the next leg likely depends on proving AI can expand Jira and Confluence workflows while helping customers commit to bigger cloud deals.
How Much Upside Does TEAM Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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